Julie and the Oscars: February 2009

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

The Oscars!

These were the most hyped Academy Awards in my 16 years watching. Surprises and dazzling showmanship were promised. Alright, Sid Ganis, show us what you've got...

Hugh Jackman entered to a big-band jazz arrangement of the Lawrence of Arabia theme. It was surprisingly cool. The stage design was, as promised, more intimate. The band was onstage, and the decor evoked an old Hollywood ballroom. The stage wasn't very high, so the host was nearly at eye level with the nominees, and free to walk up to them for a kiss hello. He joked that Meryl Streep's 15 nominations must be attributable to steroids, and she flexed her muscles for him. Awesome.

Jackman, rather than a comedian, was chosen to host so that he could bring the song-and-dance pizazz he brought to his Tony Awards hosting duties. He started off with a Best Picture medley that at first seemed like a pale imitation of Billy Crystal's signature opening. But he soon made it his own, with a giggling, free-wheeling energy. The best part was when he pulled Anne Hathaway onstage for a cheeky duet in which his David Frost and her Richard Nixon pull in close and nearly kiss.

He also killed with a number featuring silver-clad dancers doing frenetic robot moves as Jackman sings "The Reader!" And just as you think to yourself that the telecast has reached a new low for incongruous, bad-taste musical numbers, he belts the next line of the song: "I haven't seen The Reader!" Take that, Harvey Weinstein!

The first award of the evening was Best Supporting Actress. First they showed clips of previous Supporting Actress winners' acceptance speeches. (Except the curtains didn't open for the first 10 seconds: Clips played behind a black curtain, and someone could be heard yelling "Steve, open them! Open them!") Then they replayed five of those clips over hanging panels, which were lifted to reveal former winners Eva Marie Saint ('54), Goldie Hawn ('69), Anjelica Huston ('85), Whoopi Goldberg ('90), and Tilda Swinton ('07). Then each woman gives a speech about each of the five supporting actress nominees. Oh, my god, are they going to do this for every acting category? This will take for-EVER! And yet, the one-on-one tributes are the best part; each nominee's eyes filled with tears during her presentation. (Though I groaned when Whoopi Goldberg said of Amy Adams, "It's not easy playing a nun!" Ah, yes, that Academy Award-winning classic.) The winner was Penelope Cruz: She gave a gracious speech, and like her boyfriend Javier Bardem did last year, ended by speaking in Spanish to her native country.

The Academy made a cryptic statement that the awards will be presented in a way that "tells a story." We learned what that meant when Hugh Jackman explained the categories will be presented in the order they occur in the production of a film, meaning the screenplay awards are first. Writer-actors Steve Martin and Tina Fey gave this presentation hilariously: "It has been said that to write is to live forever...the man who wrote that is now dead."

The winners were Dustin Lance Black for Milk and Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire. Black gave a poignant, emotional acceptance, thanking Harvey Milk for inspiring him in his own life and sending a message of hope to all the gay teenagers watching.

Jennifer Aniston and Jack Black gave the animation awards, and Black delivered one of the cruelest zingers, alluding to the bitter rivalry between animation studios: "Every year I do a Dreamworks film, take my paycheck to the Oscars, and bet it all on Pixar!" Then Pixar's Wall-E beat Dreamworks's Kung Fu Panda, and Black gave a "Yesssss!" (Also, while Black was joking about his own film, the cameras cut to Panda co-star Angelina Jolie. But the gossip mill thought it was a Jen/Angie thing. Eyeroll.)

Sarah Jessica Parker and Daniel Craig presented ALL THREE art department awards. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button took Art Direction and Makeup, and The Duchess took Costume Design. This was disappointing, because the costume winner was a man; the winners in this category are almost always women, and they almost always wear a fabulously weird dress.

Robert Pattinson and Amanda Seyfried presented a time-wasting montage about onscreen romances of 2008. Notable only because they included Sean Penn's passionate liplock with James Franco.

Ben Stiller has appeared on the Oscar stage in Starsky and Hutch garb and in a green-screen body suit. This time he wore a Crazy Joaquin Phoenix beard.

He and Natalie Portman gave Best Cinematography to Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire.

Jessica Biel gave the obligitory shout-out to the Sci-Tech Awards.

In lieu of a time-wasting montage about comedy films in 2008, Judd Apatow shot a short film in which James Franco and Seth Rogan put on their Pineapple Express costumes and watched the comedies of 2008 while stoned. (Those comedies included The Reader and Doubt.) Then they watched Milk and the Penn/Franco liplock played onscreen again, this time for the purpose of a lame gay panic joke between the Pineapple guys. It ended with them trying to make one of Janusz Kaminski's Oscars into a bong.

The three stars of the film then appeared live, and told the audience that Janusz Kaminski is the first cinematographer to present on the telecast, to which Kaminski said, "Suck on that, Anthony Dod Mantle!" THAT'S what this show has always been missing: Cinematographer smack-talk! Franco mangled the name of the winning Live-Action Short, Spielzugland, and he and Rogan burst into stoner giggles.

Hold onto your hats! Next was the big musical number, a hodge-podge of songs from musicals (often just a single LINE of a song) from Hugh Jackman, featuring Beyonce Knowles (who tried to sing "Top Hat, White Tie, and Tails" like a sex kitten -- ick), and the stars of High School Musical and Mamma Mia!, presumably to court the tween demographic. The production number was designed by Baz Luhrmann, and it prominently featured music and film clips from Moulin Rouge.

Next came the Supporting Actor presentation, starring Joel Grey ('72), Christopher Walken ('78), Kevin Kline ('88), Cuba Gooding Jr. ('96), and Alan Arkin ('06). (Why didn't you show up, reigning winner Javier Bardem?) Arkin spoke praises for, and I quote, "Seymour Philip Hoffman", but it was Gooding who embarrassed himself by pretending to scold Robert Downey Jr. for stealing black roles when "the bruthas need the work!" Yikes. The most inspired choice of the entire broadcast was having Christopher Walken talk about Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. How much would you pay to see Shannon as his RR character do a scene with Walken?!?! The winner was Heath Ledger, and his parents and sister had the surreal task of accepting his award. They spoke kind words of thanks, and there wasn't a dry eye in the house, or at home watching. I sincerely hope the Ledgers were able to bypass the predatory press room following their acceptance.

Another time-wasting montage interviewed the directors of the documentary nominees. It was briefly fun when one of the directors had an expletive bleeped, an offscreen voice said, "You just said, '[bleep]'," and the director froze.

Bill Maher came out and snarkily complained about having to follow the devastating Supporting Actor presentation. Then he complained his documentary Religiolous wasn't nominated, and made snarkier statements championing agnosticism. (Dude, I'M an agnostic, and you make me cringe!) Doc Feature went to Man on Wire, and the film's manic subject, Philippe Petit, stormed the stage to do a coin trick and balance the Oscar on his chin. Worthy of Jack Palance.

Will Smith presented FOUR awards in a row: Visual Effects to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Sound Editing to The Dark Knight, and Sound Mixing and Film Editing to Slumdog Millionaire.

Eddie Murphy held Jerry Lewis's Oscar close to his chest as he told the audience why Lewis was receiving the Herscholt Humanitarian Award. Then he gave the award "from one Nutty Professor to another", even though Lewis publicly blasted Murphy's remake.

Indian composer A.R. Rahman waited in the wings to perform the nominated songs from Slumdog as Alicia Keys and Zac Efron read the nominees for Best Score. They declared Rahman the winner for Slumdog Millionaire, so he came onstage, accepted the award, stashed it somewhere backstage, then came out again to sing "O Saya." Rahman went offstage while John Legend (subbing for Peter Gabriel) sang "Down to Earth", came back onstage to sing "Jai Ho", left the stage so Keys and Efron could present Best Song, and came right back onstage to accept the statuette for "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire. Rahman must have been exhausted.

Liam Neeson and Frieda Pinto presented Best Foreign Language Film, because they are foreign. It was neither of the two front-runners: Okuribito from Japan was the surprise winner, and the Japanese cast and crew took the stage. India wasn't the only country to crowd the podium!

Usually the "Death Reel" is accompanied by orchestra music, but this year it was lifted by Queen Latifah's tender rendition of "I'll Be Seeing You." Well done, producers. The prestigious last-clip-before-blackout spot went to Paul Newman, as it should have.

Reese Witherspoon gave Best Director to Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire and he bounced like Tigger, just as he promised his kids he would.

Here come the Best Actress winners! Sophia Loren ('61), Shirley MacLaine ('83), Halle Berry ('01), Nicole Kidman ('02), and Marion Cotillard ('07) paid tribute to the nominees. Anne Hathaway looked like she would bawl her eyes out as the great Shirley Mac praised her acting and singing. The winner was...please, please, please...YES! KATE WINSLET!

Kate hugged all five presenters and kept it together during her speech. She tried to find her Dad in the sea of attendees, asked him to whistle so she could find him, and Papa Winslet let out one helluva piercing whistle that brought down the house. Yay for Kate!

Finally, the Best Actor posse took the stage: Robert DeNiro ('80), Ben Kingsley ('82), Michael Douglas ('87), Anthony Hopkins ('91), and Adrien Brody ('02.) (Daniel Day-Lewis, like Javier Bardem, apparently blew off his reigning Best Actor duties.) My old crush Mr. Brody looked skeezy as hell with a greasy mullet and patchy beard, and DeNiro poked fun at Sean Penn's soapboxing and paparazzi fights. The winner was Sean Penn, and he himself admitted how difficult he is to like. He made a scolding plea for gay marriage rights (you're not helping!), but then gave a brotherly shout-out to the almost-winner, Mickey Rourke.

Steven Spielberg was ready to kill this thing and be done with it, but he was forced to drag out the Best Picture presentation with a montage of not just this year's nominees, but previous Best Picture nominees with similar themes! Are you kidding me?!?! The juxtapositions ranged from obvious (Frost/Nixon and All the President's Men), to groaningly crass (The Reader and The Graduate?!?! Really?) Slumdog Millionaire won its 8th of 10 nominations (and one loss, Best Song, was to itself), so the adorable children got to take the stage and grin their moony little faces off.

It was a loony show with tears, laughs, good music, and many spectacularly awful production choices. Everything an Oscar show should be.

Pretty Dresses!

White was the favorite on this year's red carpet. So how to make your white dress stand out from the pack? Penelope Cruz wore it best, in a full princess skirt with grey filigree details. Her vintage dress was 60 years old and she bought it eight years ago, saving it for a special occasion. (Good call!) Jennifer Aniston and Anne Hathaway went for silver sparkle. Taraji P. Henson looked lovely in delicate pleats that resembled a column of white rose petals. Nicole Kidman had a soft, ethereal texture with feathers. Marisa Tomei's dress looked like spilled stacks of paper, and yet it was so artfully designed, it was exciting instead of sloppy. Evan Rachel Wood had a nice sheen to her gown. The only dud here is Jessica Biel's dress, with a limp, awkward drape on the front that obscured her pretty figure.

Black is usually the most common choice, and therefore the most boring. Halle Berry brought some interest to basic black with regal (but tasteful) gold patterning. Beyonce Knowles would have looked nice in black and gold too, if it wasn't for the awful cut of her gown; it was too tight and too big in all the wrong places, working against her awesome curves instead of with them. Performer Vanessa Hudgens had an interesting (if a little incoherent) gown. Diane Lane and Robin Wright had plain dresses, and so did Angelina Jolie, though hers was a wise choice given the opulence of her earrings. (See close-up below.)

Amy Adams rocked her raspberry gown and AMAZING necklace. (See close-up below.) Virginia Madsen also sizzled in a killer shade and cut. I know Bridget Fonda is getting ripped on for her print dress, but I love it. The red and black pattern is spooky, but small and controlled, and balanced by a simple and elegant dress shape. Phoebe Cates looked nice in a breezy gown. The worst is definitely performer Amanda Seyfried, attacked by a giant bow. I'll never understand designers' fondness for the giant bow; I've never seen a single one that flatters the wearer.

Blue was another favorite choice. None was more beautiful than Frieda Pinto's exquisite, flowing gown. Asymmetrical straps/sleeves/necklines were everywhere, and none was more daring or more successful than the elegant lace sleeve, in danger of looking frumpy if overdone, but saved by the simple strap and bare shoulder on the other side. The skirt was dreamy and the cobalt color magnificent. Sarah Jessica Parker also wore a heavenly skirt, hers in a pale seafoam shade. Queen Latifah wore her best Oscar dress yet; in the past she wore either plain black or too much glitz; here is the perfect balance with navy fabric adorned with a tasteful shower of blue jewels at the bust. Marion Cotillard's giant poof of black and blue should have been horrible, but somehow she rocks the look. Miley Cyrus's frosted petal dress also should have been a disaster, but the sweet neckline and careful distribution of color made it a funky success. Reese Witherspoon had the worst of the blues, because it had way too many motifs; just two or three and it would have been great. And yet the biggest disappointment was Kate Winslet. She wore such perfect gowns for her last five nominations, so it was a shame she finally won while wearing a slate blue dress ruined by lumpy black netting. Black lace overlay would have looked great, but the blobs on her shoulder and skirt did not. (But even in a bad dress, she is still beautiful.)

Viola Davis, Tina Fey, and Leslie Mann all look fantastic in metallics.

Alicia Keys and Natalie Portman wore almost the same shade of pink. Both looked fabulous.

And the most troubling color family of all: Earthtones. Melissa Leo was sooo close; I love the brave choice of burnt orange, love the cap sleeves, love the jeweled sleeve clips, love the emerald earrings. Unfortunately the cut of the dress minimized her bust and maximized her waist, which is just cruel. (Shame on you, dress!) Her pendant was also an unsettlingly realistic-looking spider. Sophia Loren drowned in mustard ruffles. Meryl Streep had shapeless gray working against her beauty. Whoopi Goldberg looked terrible, but it's her job to bring the The Crazy. With bewildering gowns two years in a row, Tilda Swinton now has a special niche at the Oscars, so I've decided to embrace her comically bad style. Besides, I'm sure it's her fun way of thumbing her nose at Hollywood glamour, as a talented but fiercely independent spirit.

The jewels I covet: The dizzying necklace on Amy Adams. It appears to be cabochon-cut emeralds, rubies, and sapphires. (Keira Knightly sported all three of those stones in another astonishing necklace at the Oscars three years ago.) Marion Cotillard's glittering coin necklace also has me confused -- are they blue topaz? aquamarine? blue opals? -- and envious. And Angelina Jolie's monster-huge emerald earrings are spectacular.

Rarely do the gents have notable fashion choices, but here are my favorites. Mickey Rourke looked wonderfully crazy (wouldn't you have been disappointed if he didn't?), but his photo pendant of his dog Loki (who died six days earlier) was very sweet. Philip Seymour Hoffman made me laugh with his bizarre knit cap; "schlub" is his signature style, so I can dig it. Winning screenwriter Simon Beaufoy had some kind of beaded thing under his tux and crossing his tie, so kudos to him for wearing something interesting.

The best accessory of all? The gay marriage ribbon sported by the Milk men -- Dustin Lance Black, Cleve Jones, Emile Hirsch, and Josh Brolin -- and other celebrities like Richard Jenkins.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Julie's Predictions for the 81st Annual Academy Awards

An unbelievable stroke of luck has afforded me to see almost all of the nominated films in time for the ceremony, despite being too broke to go to the theatres or rent the DVD’s. So I’m happy to write a much more informed column this time around! (First, I must apologize to The Reader for calling it lame. Strangely enough, the film turned out to be an engrossing story, immediate on a human level and not at all the dull history lecture it seemed to be. My mistake.)

P.S.: Here is a picture of me at the "Meet the Oscars" exhibition in Chicago. That is a real Oscar, though it's likely that particular statuette will remain a prop for their annual exhibitions, and will never actually be given to a winner. But it was awesome to hold just the same!

Best Actor

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Alas, Richard Jenkins is the first candidate who can be eliminated. Squeaking into the top five will have to be its own reward; he doesn’t have the star power or Big Dramatics to knock out the front-runners. Just about the same can be said of Frank Langella. Conversely, Brad Pitt is way too overexposed and jealousy-inducing to charm the voters. His is also an oddly blank performance, and not even the best one he gave in 2008: See Burn After Reading. The face-off in this category is between the medium-sized fame and excellent performances from Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Rourke took the Golden Globe, but Penn took the major critics’ awards and the SAG. Penn’s film is up for Best Picture but Rourke’s isn’t – in fact, it was shut out of the Screenplay category, too. Both have been ranked among the best actors of their generation, but while Penn picked up this award a mere five years ago (for Mystic River), Rourke has never won before. (Last year Daniel Day-Lewis was a repeat Best Actor winner, but he was miles ahead of his competitors; in a race this close, it’s more likely voters will want to spread the wealth.) Neither actor has the cuddliest reputation, but Penn’s appearances at awards shows are usually smug, while Rourke’s have been kooky-entertaining. And while Penn has been consistently nominated over the last 15 years (this is his fifth nod), Rourke’s surprise comeback this year was one of the most talked-about stories of the year, and I think that will give him the extra boost to settle this particularly close race. Prediction: Mickey Rourke Personal Pick: I think anyone but Pitt would be deserving. I would like to see Rourke win the coin-toss, but my heart belongs to Richard Jenkins.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

I never thought I’d say this, but the Academy got it right! After seeing The Reader and Revolutionary Road, I learned that Kate Winslet’s performance in the first film is absolutely a leading role – it had no business competing for Supporting Actress at the Globe and Guild awards – and superior to her performance in the second film. Kate’s category switch had some wondering if her Oscar chances had been spoiled, if she would have had a better chance winning Best Actress for her marital quarrels with Titanic co-star Leonardo DiCaprio as directed by her real husband Sam Mendes, rather than as an unrepentant Nazi who seduces a teenage boy. I would argue that neither character is likeable, and while Winslet sometimes struggles with the overripe dialogue in RR, she is haunting as a woman without a conscience in The Reader, an uncomfortable reminder of how evil can be carried out by ordinary people. Furthermore, Best Actress characters don’t have to be pillars of morality: See the wins for Charlize Theron, Kathy Bates, and Louise Fletcher. The main reason I think her chances aren’t spoiled is that she has scored for The Reader no matter what category she is in. For her to be nominated in this category, she had to get not only more votes for The Reader in the lead rather than supporting category, but more votes for The Reader than RR. (It is possible she received enough votes to get two Best Actress nominations and one Supporting, but Academy rules state that actors cannot compete against themselves in the same category, nor can the same performance be nominated for both lead and supporting; if either or both scenarios occurred, the performance with fewer votes would be discarded.) And while the Academy overwhelmingly preferred her in The Reader, she still managed to win the SAG award in the supporting category. This is also her sixth nomination without a win, and the consensus among her peers is that this is her year. Former winner and tabloid mainstay Angelina Jolie can’t touch her. Relative unknown Melissa Leo was lucky just to land in the top 5. Anne Hathaway will probably win someday, but for now she’s too young, and her film received no other nominations. Meryl Streep won the SAG award because she didn’t have to compete against Winslet in The Reader, and it would be obscene for Streep to pick up a third Oscar while Winslet loses for a sixth time. (Which, by the way, would tie her with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter for the Most Losing Actress in Academy history.) Prediction and Personal Pick: Kate Winslet (As much as I enjoyed Streep’s Bronx accent, Winslet and Hathaway were a class ahead, and I am on the Kate-Must-Win train. But I didn’t catch up to Frozen River and didn’t want to see Changeling.)

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Surprise nominee Michael Shannon is out; winning without at least a SAG nod is 99% impossible. Philip Seymour Hoffman is out; he just won Best Actor three years ago and hasn’t commanded any type of lead in the race. Josh Brolin is a slender possibility, since he’s been hot lately with No Country For Old Men and W. (Milk may have been a better film than W, but he was much better in the latter film. In fact, can I switch him with Brad Pitt so they’re both nominated in the right categories for the right roles?) Robert Downey Jr. has a marginally better shot, since he was possibly the most successful star of 2008 with both Iron Man and Tropic Thunder. It’s true that the Ben Stiller film is not the Academy’s typical cup of tea, but Downey transcended their usual prejudice against straight-up comedy by standing on the knife-edge of bad taste without stumbling. But even that performance wasn’t the best trick of the year. No one has ever been nominated for a comic book film until this year, because no actor brought such vivid psychological shadings to a cartoon role as Heath Ledger did with The Joker. Oscar buzz for his work began before he died, so let’s not forget that he will win because he absolutely deserves it. Posthumous acting nominations have gone to Jeanne Eagels, James Dean, Spencer Tracy, Ralph Richardson, and Massimo Troisi, but only Peter Finch (in Network) was voted a posthumous acting trophy; this year he will have distinguished company. Prediction and Personal Pick: Heath Ledger (The show’s producers have kept it a secret who will accept the award if he wins, but the statuette will become the legal property of his 3-year-old daughter Matilda when she turns 18.)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

HERE is an Oscar race, the only acting category that’s truly up for grabs; there is no front-runner because the major awards went to Best Actress upgrade Kate Winslet. The only one I’ll eliminate is Marisa Tomei, because she’s won before and didn’t get a SAG nod. Taraji P. Henson could hope for a Tilda Swinton-style victory; last year this race had no favorite, and with Michael Clayton guaranteed to lose in all the other top categories, Swinton carried the flag for her film (so just insert Henson and Benjamin Button in that scenario.) Sometimes two nominees from the same film cancel each other out (like the women of Babel), but sometimes one is a clear favorite over the other (like the women of Chicago). Doubt is definitely the latter; while everyone with good taste loves Amy Adams, the favorite performance in this film is unmistakably Viola Davis’s. Some are turned off by the weepy nature of Adams’s role, while Davis makes a quiet but passionate appearance that leaves viewers devastated. I’ll put her very close to the finish line, but since her performance is only one12-minute scene (not impossible for a win but definitely a rarity) and the Tony-winning actress is barely known in Hollywood, I’ll give the slight edge to Penelope Cruz. She was a revelation in Volver two years ago, and she was the only burst of energy and entertainment in the insufferable Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She is now respected as a serious actress, Woody Allen films often charm this category, and she did win three of the four major critics’ awards at the start of the race. Her main disadvantage is that hers is the film’s only nomination, though Angelina Jolie and Marisa Tomei have won in this category on their film’s one nod. Prediction: Penelope Cruz Personal Pick: Viola Davis was my very favorite of these five. I really hope she pulls off a steal!

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

The Writers’ Guild didn’t nominate The Reader, so David Hare is out. John Patrick Shanley already has a screenplay Oscar, and I don’t think he’ll pull a repeat as the only non-Best Picture nominee in the race. Eric Roth is not only a former winner, but many contend that Benjamin Button is just a rehash of his Forrest Gump screenplay. (The joke in Hollywood is that he already won for this movie 14 years ago.) Peter Morgan might pick up some sympathy votes from those who think he was robbed for The Queen, and Frost/Nixon proved once again he has a knack for finding the human drama in political scandals. Still, it’s hard to imagine any film being able to knock out Slumdog. The movie is unstoppable, and a win from the WGA awards is the best indication that the Writers’ branch of the Academy will carry the film to major victories. Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire Personal Pick: Anything but Button will be fine with me. I respect the other four nominees but I’m not terribly in love with any of them.

Best Original Screenplay

Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy Go Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonough
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Wall-E, Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon

This was a truly screwy category this year; Milk is the only film nominated by both the WGA and the Academy. (Not surprisingly, it won the WGA award as well.) It’s also the only Best Picture nominee in this race, so I don’t think anything else is even a possibility. Prediction and Personal Pick: Milk, though it’s only my favorite over Wall-E, because I didn’t get catch up to Frozen River or Happy Go Lucky in time, and I have no interest in ever seeing In Bruges.

Best Director and Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
The Reader, Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

The same five films are nominated in these two categories, and their fates are pretty much intertwined. Frost/Nixon is least likely, because Ron Howard has won before, and it’s the film viewers are least excited about. Harvey Weinstein, the Karl Rove of Oscar campaigns, is whipping up a fierce media push for The Reader – he’s the guy responsible for Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan – but Stephen Daldry didn’t get the crucial DGA nod, making a win for him impossible and thus a Best Picture win nearly impossible. Benjamin Button has the Forrest Gump diss working against it, and the overriding sentiment that there was room for it among five nominees, but no one loves it enough to vote it first place. Fincher may get a few votes for the level-of-difficultly factor, but not nearly enough to shake up the race. Milk has become a cultural touchstone for the backlash against Prop 8, as a story of the gay rights movement in California (albeit in a different decade); maybe some will vote for this film as a show of support, but again, not nearly enough to shake up the race. Everyone loves Slumdog Millionaire: It won awards from every major Guild, it has Cinderella story uplift, yet the portrayal of desperate poverty gives it the “serious” cred so many Oscar voters need. In short, it can’t lose. Predictions: Danny Boyle and Slumdog Millionaire Personal Pick: Again, I’m not hugely in love with any of the nominees. I’m fine as long as Button doesn’t win. And sure, I’d like to see the adorable reaction shots of Dev Patel and Freida Pinto as their film hits the jackpot.

The Rest of the Races

I don’t know these categories very well, so use with caution.

Cinematography:
The moody palette of The Dark Knight, because even if the Academy couldn’t stomach a Best Picture nod for Batman, they must admit the photography is fantastic.

Editing:
The alternating chronology of Slumdog should do the trick.

Art Direction:
Benjamin Button got the highest nomination total this year, so at least a mini-sweep is in order, and the sheer number of historical sets will push Oscar’s buttons.

Costume Design:
I’ll say another one for Button, because the costumes cover almost every decade of the 20th century. If not, then the froufy gowns of The Duchess.

Score:
The pulsing, energetic Slumdog music.

Sound Mixing:
The first half hour of Wall-E is told entirely through sound, so that’s my guess. (Dark Knight is my second guess.)

Sound Editing:
Ditto for Wall-E. (And a runner-up ditto for Dark Knight.)

Visual Effects:
The Curious wizards who grafted Brad Pitt’s performance onto the bodies of both elderly and child actors.

Makeup:
The Curious wizards who made Pitt and Cate Blanchett look much younger and much, much older.

Song:
This category exists to be completely insane, so why bother? The days of Disney films automatically winning are over, so I’ll axe the lame-ass Wall-E song and guess “Jai Ho”, the dance track with soaring vocals featured in the jubilant finale of Slumdog (rather than the film’s other nominated song, because I can’t place where in the film the song appeared.)

Animated Feature:
Wall-E is nominated for a screenplay award. It was a genuine possibility for a Best Picture nod. Done and done.

Documentary Feature:
Man on Wire was the most widely seen, which makes it the front-runner. (But this category often sees front-runners mysteriously passed over.)

Foreign Language Film:
Waltz With Bashir falls somewhere between the foreign language, documentary, and animated feature categories. It won the DGA and WGA awards as a documentary. It will probably win here too, unless genre-sticklers go for The Class.

Julie's Own Damn Oscars (Or Anti-Oscars), Given By Her, Damnit!

Films I Actually Saw:

Baby Mama; Be Kind Rewind; Burn After Reading; Cadillac Records; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; The Dark Knight; Doubt; Forgetting Sarah Marshall; Frost/Nixon; Iron Man; Milk; Rachel Getting Married; The Reader; Revolutionary Road; Slumdog Millionaire; Tropic Thunder; Vicky Cristina Barcelona; The Visitor; W; Wall-E; The Wrestler