Winner Predictions

Best Actor

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
26%	Matthew       McConaughey	Dallas Buyers Club	*SAG, *GG, *CC, ISA	1,0
24%	Chiwetel Ejiofor	12 Years a Slave	SAG, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
23%	Bruce Dern	Nebraska	SAG, GG, CC, *LAFC, *NBR, ISA	2,0
22%	Leonardo DiCaprio	The Wolf of Wall Street	*GG	4,0
5%	Christian Bale	American Hustle	GG, CC	2,1

Generally speaking, an actor can’t win an Oscar without at least a SAG nomination, but sometimes, the Oscar nominations push the reset button on the race, and votes realign. Last year, for example, it’s probable that Christoph Waltz and Leonardo DiCaprio split the vote for Django Unchained, resulting in neither getting a SAG nod, but with only Waltz making the Academy’s short-list, perhaps he picked up the majority of DiCaprio’s fans to pull off his upset win. DiCaprio now seems to be on the opposite end of such a redistribution: With three major front-runners (Tom Hanks, Robert Redford, and Forest Whitaker) falling out of contention, there are a huge chunk of votes up for grabs, and DiCaprio seems to be picking up the bulk of them. It still doesn’t make him the favorite. Bruce Dern could pull off a lifetime-achievement victory, Chiwetel Ejiofor could easily steal with his wrenching work in a Best Picture favorite, and Matthew McConaughey’s winning streak (along with his astonishing body of work in the last two years) moves him to the front of the pack. Just barely.

Prediction: Matthew McConaughey (and I further predict his speech will be just bonkers)

Personal Pick: My heart belongs to Chiwetel Ejiofor

Best Actress

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
35%	Cate Blanchett	Blue Jasmine	*SAG, *GG, *CC, *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC, ISA	6,1
32%	Amy Adams	American Hustle	*GG	5,0
17%	Judi Dench	Philomena	SAG, GG, CC	7,1
15%	Sandra Bullock	Gravity	SAG, GG, CC	2,1
1%	Meryl Streep	August: Osage County	SAG, GG, CC	18,3

Word on the street was that voters would love to coronate Amy Adams on her fifth attempt at an Oscar, but couldn’t justify voting against Cate Blanchett. And then a stomach-turning scandal broke involving the writer-director of Blue Jasmine. Of course no one blames Ms. Blanchett for any of this, but voters may want to distance themselves from the film. Adams, like DiCaprio, is quickly making up for lost ground from the SAG nominations – and she did win a SAG award for her performance, as part of the film’s ace ensemble – and is now positioned as the most likely spoiler. I think there’s also a possibility of a surprise win for Dench, who, at age 79, has expressed concern for her ability to continue acting, so this may be her last nomination. (Recall that her one win was for an eight-minute cameo role in Shakespeare in Love.) Love for Gravity could even spill over to Sandra Bullock, but if Meryl wins, we riot.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett gets upgraded to a Best Actress winner, for which I can’t really complain.

Personal Pick: Go, Amy, go!

Best Supporting Actor

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
40%	Jared Leto	Dallas Buyers Club	*SAG, *GG, *CC, *NYFC, *LAFC, ISA	1,0
25%	Michael Fassbender	12 Years a Slave	SAG, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
15%	Barkhad Abdi	Captain Phillips	SAG, GG, CC	1,0
11%	Bradley Cooper	American Hustle	GG, CC	2,0
9%	Jonah Hill	The Wolf of Wall Street		2,0

This is the easiest acting race to call. Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill are in about the same place, on their second nomination with their second “grown-up” movie, but I don’t think Oscar’s ready for them just yet. Barkhad Abdi is nominated for his very first acting job ever, which makes for an uphill battle but not an impossibility [see the Supporting Actress race]…and having no films on your resume is better than having The Hangover. Michael Fassbender was terrifyingly good and has been on quite a hot-streak in recent years. Yet it’s impossible to imagine Jared Leto losing this one after winning every other award in existence. He gave a performance of devastating beauty and astonishing physical transformation that won’t be passed over.

Prediction: Jared Leto

Personal Pick: I will be delighted for Mr. Leto, but I’m a sucker for the deranged, goofy, sexy, pathetic creature that Bradley Cooper brought to life. I love him in D.O. Russell films even more fervently than I hate him in “bro comedies.” 

Best Supporting Actress

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
35%	Lupita Nyong’o	12 Years a Slave	*SAG, GG, *CC, *LAFC, ISA	1,0
34%	Jennifer Lawrence	American Hustle	SAG, *GG, CC, *NYFC, *NSFC	3,1
26%	June Squibb	Nebraska	SAG, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
4%	Sally Hawkins	Blue Jasmine	GG, ISA	1,0
1%	Julia Roberts	August: Osage County	SAG, GG, CC	4,1

Absolutely no one feels the need to give Julia another win at this time, and while Sally Hawkins has her fans, her candidacy is far too modest for this group. June Squibb’s bitter, cranky scene-stealer is a possibility, but the favorite comedic performance is Jennifer Lawrence’s. In the opposite corner is Lupita Nyong’o’s heartbreaking characterization of a woman unspeakably wronged by society. Nyong’o, like Barkhad Abdi, is nominated for her film debut, which puts her at a slight disadvantage (Academy members generally like to honor those who have paid their dues), but her primary competition comes from the reigning Best Actress winner. Can Lawrence really win two years in a row (at all of 23 years old)?

Prediction and Personal Pick: Lupita Nyong’o

Best Adapted Screenplay

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
22%	John Ridley	12 Years a Slave	GG, *CC, ISA	1,0
21%	Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope	Philomena	GG, CC	1,0 1,0
20%	Billy Ray	Captain Phillips	*WGA, CC	1,0
19%	Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater	Before Midnight	WGA, *LAFC, CC, *NSFC, ISA	2,0 2,0 (writ.) 2,0
18%	Terence Winter	The Wolf of Wall Street	WGA, CC, *NBR	1,0

In a way, this is the closest of the major races, because no one’s definitely out, nor is anyone definitely in.  Wolf scored far more nominations than expected, though I think it’s hated too much to muscle ahead of the competition. Everyone loves Linklater’s Before trilogy, and voters might want to symbolically honor all three films with this award. Captain Phil was the surprise WGA winner, but I think that’s only because the more likely candidates were ineligible. I think Philomena was left off the WGA list because neither British writer belongs to the American guild. Coogan is a well-liked comedian, and co-wrote such an unexpectedly tender drama that he might pull off a dark-horse victory. It would seem that 12 Years a Slave, in a three-way race for Best Picture (and with neither of its primary competitors in the Adaptation category), would be a shoo-in. But consider the reason 12 Years was ineligible for the WGA award: During the writers’ strike of 2008, John Ridley resigned from the guild and continued to work. That is not a professional move the film industry will take lightly. Lingering resentment could certainly be a factor.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

Personal Pick: I’m kinda-sorta-split between 12 Years, Philomena, and Before Midnight

Best Original Screenplay

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
40%	Spike Jonze	Her	*WGA, *GG, *CC	1,0 (writing)
39%	David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer	American Hustle	WGA, GG, CC, *NYFC	2,0 (writ.) 1,0
11%	Bob Nelson	Nebraska	WGA, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
10%	Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack	Dallas Buyers Club	WGA	1,0 1,0
0%	Woody Allen	Blue Jasmine	WGA, CC, ISA	16,3 (writing)

Amy Adams is going to stand up and cheer either way. Her is the undeniable front-runner, with a unique premise for a story of alienation and love lost.  But Hustle cannot be discounted, with its breathless, crackling dialogue. Jonze and Russell are both admired writer-directors, but I have to think that Russell’s phenomenal output of late will be a major factor: In four calendar years, he released three films which were all nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, and netted a combined 11 acting nods. He’s absolutely due for a win. Plus, Hustle did manage broader support among the nominations; Her missed out Director and any acting nods.  It’s so very, very close.

Prediction: Her

Personal Pick: American Hustle

Best Director

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
39%	Alfonso Cuaron	Gravity	*DGA, *GG, *CC, *LAFC	1,0 (directing)
33%	Steve McQueen	12 Years a Slave	DGA, GG, CC, *NYFC, ISA	1,0
23%	David O. Russell	American Hustle	DGA, GG, CC	3,0 (directing)
3%	Alexander Payne	Nebraska	GG, ISA	3,0 (directing)
2%	Martin Scorsese	The Wolf of Wall Street	DGA, CC	8,1 (directing)

We’ll have either the first Best Director winner of Latin-American descent, or the first of African descent, so I guess that’s kind of cool.  Mexican auteur Cuaron should keep up his winning streak against British newcomer McQueen.

Prediction: Gravity

Personal Pick: I think Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell all wrought mighty (and mightily dissimilar) films.

Best Picture

odds	film	precursor awards	total noms
27%	Gravity	*PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC	10
26%	12 Years a Slave	*PGA, *GG, *CC, ISA	9
22%	American Hustle	PGA, *GG, CC, *NYFC	10
7%	Nebraska	PGA, GG, CC, ISA	6
6%	The Wolf of Wall Street	PGA, GG, CC	5
5%	Her	PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC, *NBR	5
4%	Dallas Buyers Club	PGA, CC	6
2%	Philomena	GG	4
1%	Captain Phillips	PGA, GG, CC	6

Gravity has the upper hand with the Best Director favorite, but also the lower hand without a writing nomination. 12 Years has the most compelling story. American Hustle has the most pure cinematic joy. My guess is Gravity, maybe by a single vote.

Prediction: Gravity

Personal Pick: American Hustle

     * THE REST OF THE RACES *

Cinematography: The blended photography and animation of Gravity.

Editing: Probably another one for Gravity.

Art Direction: Always bet on the most frou-frou, which I think means The Great Gatsby.

Costume Design: The coolest costumes never win, so I think the dazzle of The Great Gatsby will edge out the retro-fabulous American Hustle.

Score: Probably another one for Gravity.

Sound Editing: Probably another one for Gravity.

Sound Mixing: Probably another one for Gravity.

Visual Effects: Definitely another one for Gravity.

Makeup: Absolutely Dallas Buyers Club over two of the worst-reviewed movies of the year.

Song: People like U2 for some reason, but their limp song will be creamed by Frozen.

Animated Feature: People really like that Frozen.

Foreign-Language Film: There’s no obvious hit; my ill-informed guess is The Great Beauty.

Documentary Feature: The agonizing Act of Killing is generally agreed to be the best of the year, ahead of the more enjoyable 20 Feet From Stardom.

     * Julie’s Own Damn Oscars (or Anti-Oscars), Given By Her, Damnit! *

Films I Actually Saw:

American Hustle; August: Osage County; Before Midnight; Blue Jasmine; The Butler; Captain Phillips; Dallas Buyers Club; Enough Said; Frozen; Fruitvale Station; Gravity; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska; Philomena; Saving Mr. Banks; The Spectacular Now; 12 Years a Slave; The Way, Way Back; The Wolf of Wall Street

Favorite Films:

American Hustle

Nebraska

Enough Said

Before Midnight

Least Favorite Films:

The Wolf of Wall Street

Inside Llewyn Davis

Captain Phillips

The Spectacular Now

Favorite Performances:

Everyone in American Hustle

Will Forte and Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back

Most Vivid Characters:

American Hustle

Least Vivid Characters:

The blur of nameless and practically faceless people in Captain Phillips

Most Heart-Warming Use of Paul Giamatti:

Saving Mr. Banks

Most Bone-Chilling Use of Paul Giamatti:

12 Years a Slave

Spookiest Doppelganger:

Max Casella channeling the ghost of Bruno Kirby, Blue Jasmine

Most Gratuitous Imperilment of Animals:

Inside Llewyn Davis

The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Stand-Alone Visuals:

The passionate embrace inside the dry-cleaning clothesline, American Hustle

LBJ taking a dump while surrounded by his dogs, The Butler