Nominee Predictions

BEST ACTOR

* Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave. SAG, GG, CC, ISA.

* Bruce Dern, Nebraska. SAG, GG, CC, ISA, *LAFC, *NBR.

* Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. SAG, *GG, CC, ISA.

* Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips. SAG, GG, CC.

* Robert Redford, All is Lost. GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC.

Forrest Whitaker, The Butler. SAG.

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis. GG, ISA, *NSFC.

Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. GG.

Christian Bale, American Hustle. GG, CC.

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street. *GG.

Joaquin Phoenix, Her. GG.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station. ISA.

Only Ejiofor, Dern, and McConaughey are safe bets; there’s a crowd gunning for the two wild-card slots. I have Hanks because Capt. P is doing well with precursor awards, and Redford for the level-of-difficulty factor: A nearly wordless performance without a single co-star.

BEST ACTRESS

* Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. SAG, *GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC.

* Sandra Bullock, Gravity. SAG, GG, CC.

* Meryl Streep, August: Osage County. SAG, GG, CC.

* Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks. SAG, GG, CC, *NBR.

* Judi Dench, Philomena. SAG, GG, CC.

Amy Adams, American Hustle. *GG.

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color. *LAFC.

Brie Larson, Short Term 12. CC, ISA.

Julie Delpy, Before Midnight. GG, ISA.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said. GG.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day.

I hate this category already, with all former winners at the head of the pack. My five predictions have a total of 33 acting nominations and 7 wins between them. (Ugh.) Can Amy Adams shake things up?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

* Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. SAG, *GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC, *LAFC.

* Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave. SAG, GG, CC, ISA.

* Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips. SAG, GG, CC.

* Daniel Bruhl, Rush. SAG, GG, CC.

* Bradley Cooper, American Hustle. GG, CC.

James Gandolfini, Enough Said. SAG, CC, ISA.

Will Forte, Nebraska. ISA, *NBR.

James Franco, Spring Breakers. *LAFC, *NSFC.

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street.

Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief.

Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks.

This one’s even messier than Best Actor. I’m going with the SAG nominees, minus Gandolfini, because while he was beloved for his television work, but I don’t know that he had enough of a film career for the rare posthumous nomination. I’m really hoping for dark-horse Will Forte, and not just because of my fondness for MacGruber.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

* Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave. SAG, GG, CC, ISA, *LAFC.

* Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. SAG, *GG. GG. *NYFC, *NSFC.

* June Squibb, Nebraska. SAG, GG, CC, ISA.

* Julia Roberts, August: Osage County. SAG, GG, CC.

* Oprah Winfrey, The Butler. SAG.

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine. GG, ISA.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station. *NBR.

Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station. ISA.

Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color.

Scarlett Johansson, Her. CC.

It’s an either-or between Oprah and Sally Hawkins; I’m guessing the bigger star squeaks ahead. Scarlett Johansson makes an interesting long-shot; she could be the first actor nominated for a voice-over performance.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

* 12 Years a Slave: John Ridley. [ineligible for WGA award], GG, CC, ISA.

* Before Midnight: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater. WGA, CC, ISA, *LAFC, *NSFC.

* The Wolf of Wall Street: Terence Winter. WGA, CC, *NBR.

* August: Osage County: Tracy Letts. WGA, CC.

* Philomena: Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope. [ineligible for WGA award], GG, CC.

Captain Phillips: Billy Ray. WGA, CC.

Lone Survivor: Peter Berg. WGA.

There are few adaptations in the hunt this year, so I don’t see a whole lot of wiggle room; Captain Phillips might knock out August or Philomena.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

* American Hustle: David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer. WGA, GG, CC, *NYFC.

* Nebraska: Bob Nelson. WGA, GG, CC, ISA.

* Her: Spike Jonze. WGA, *GG, CC.

* Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen. WGA, CC, ISA.

* Inside Llewyn Davis: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. CC, *NBR.

Dallas Buyers Club: Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack. WGA.

Enough Said: Nicole Holofcener. ISA.

Wadjda: Haifaa Al-Mansour.

Fruitvale Station: Ryan Coogler.

Saving Mr. Banks: Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith.

Frances Ha: Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig.

My first three predictions are in a close race to win; my two also-rans are perennial Academy favorites, but this category likes to surprise with indie flicks and foreign films; my best guess for an international upset is Haifaa Al-Mansour, who is the first Saudi Arabian woman to direct a film.

BEST DIRECTOR

* 12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen. DGA, GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC.

* Gravity: Alfonso Cuaron. DGA, *GG, CC, *LAFC.

* American Hustle: David O. Russell. DGA, GG, CC.

* Captain Phillips: Paul Greengrass. DGA, GG, CC.

* Nebraska: Alexander Payne. GG, ISA.

Her: Spike Jonze. CC, *NBR.

The Wolf of Wall Street: Martin Scorsese. DGA, CC.

Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen.

Inside Llewyn Davis: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. *NSFC.

Fruitvale Station: Ryan Coogler.

All is Lost: J.C. Chandor. ISA.

It’s sooo close between Greengrass, Payne, and Jonze; any of the three of them could get bumped.

 

BEST PICTURE

* 12 Years a Slave: PGA, *GG, CC, ISA.

* Gravity: PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC.

* American Hustle: PGA, *GG, CC, *NYFC.

* Nebraska: PGA, GG, CC, ISA.

* Her: PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC, *NBR.

* Captain Phillips: PGA, GG, CC.

* The Wolf of Wall Street: PGA, GG, CC.

* Philomena: GG.

* Blue Jasmine: PGA.

*Saving Mr. Banks: PGA, CC.

Inside Llewyn Davis: GG, CC, ISA, *NSFC.

Fruitvale Station: ISA.

Before Midnight

Dallas Buyers Club: PGA, CC.

 

The Academy is still doing that stupid thing where they bestow between 5 and 10 Best Picture nods, depending on how many first-place votes each film gets in the run-off tabulation system. To maximize my chances of correct predictions, I’m putting my chips down on 10 different films; we'll probably see between seven and nine make the cut.

The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning! Will I be able to figure out how to watch the live announcement on my phone as I ride the train in to work?