Best Actor

Career Oscar nominations for acting:

Denzel Washington: Cry Freedom (1987), Glory (1989 – winner), Malcolm X (1992), The Hurricane (1999), Training Day (2001 – winner), Flight (2012).

Daniel Day-Lewis: My Left Foot (1989 – winner), In the Name of the Father (1993), Gangs of New York (2002), There Will Be Blood (2007 – winner), Lincoln (2012).

Joaquin Phoenix: Gladiator (2000), Walk the Line (2005), The Master (2012).

Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook (2012).

Hugh Jackman: Les Miserables (2012).

Okay…so…DDL is kinda the favorite here.  By a lot.  His performance shall be dipped in bronze and archived at the Smithsonian, et cetera, et cetera.  He will become the first person to win three Best Actor statuettes.  (The record-holder for most acting wins is Kate Hepburn with four Best Actress victories, followed by Ingrid Bergman, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep with three – each with two lead, one supporting – and Walter Brennan with three supporting prizes.)

I would just like to point out that in 2001, when it seemed inevitable that Tom Hanks would win a third time, Oscar made a surprise winner out of newbie Russell Crowe.  The next year, when Crowe was the favorite for a second-consecutive victory, Oscar decided instead to upgrade Denzel Washington from Supporting to Lead Actor champ.  The year after THAT, when it seemed either Day-Lewis or Jack Nicholson would become a repeat winner, voters jumped that ship for first-timer Adrien Brody.  And in 2008, when Julie Christie was an absolute steamroller to win a second time, the Academy spread the wealth by selecting Marion Cotillard.  So I’m not the only one who hates to see the same people win again and again; voters have abandoned front-runners to give an Oscar virgin a moment of glory.

The trouble is, there’s no clear favorite to absorb that rebellion.  Bradley Cooper was excellent, but he needs a few non-terrible films under his belt before he gets the top prize.  Joaquin Phoenix was astonishing, but he is not well-liked; if there’s any contemporary actor who might pull a Brando-style Oscar refusal stunt, it’s him.  Hugh Jackman is quite well-liked, but I don’t think he’ll rally support with a non-speaking, all-singing performance.  (It works much better with a smaller role – see Anne Hathaway – but gets exhausting in a starring role.)  And Denzel Washington is, as mentioned, already a double-winner, in a performance that some love and some find phoned-in.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Personal Pick: John Hawkes, man!  Bums me out.