Best Director

The overwhelming front-runner is Ben Affleck, and he ain’t even nominated.  Write-in votes are forbidden, so that leaves a murky race in his wake.  Because three of the five DGA nominees didn’t make Oscar’s short list, fans of Argo, Zero, and Les Mis will be reshuffled to the point that the DGA choices are almost irrelevant.  Will they throw their weight behind David O. Russell’s unique orchestration of dysfunctional ensemble comedy?  Michael Haneke’s serene end-of-life meditation?  (I think 30-year-old Benh Zeitlin – a baby by this category’s standards – is the only one who can be ruled out.)  DGA-approved Ang Lee has a decent shot at an upset, for the level of difficulty in balancing epic visuals (and lots of CGI) with intimate storytelling.  But ultimately, Lincoln was this year’s nomination champ with 12 bids, and with Affleck out of the way, that means a Spielberg win by default.  He’ll be yet another three-time winner, which will put him in a three-way tie (with Frank Capra and William Wyler) for second-most Directing wins (and just behind John Ford, the all-time directing champ, with four golden guys.)

Prediction: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Personal Pick: I like David O. Russell a lot, but SLP was sometimes too cute for its own good.  I guess I’d be good with an Ang Lee victory.