BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who’s In:

Alan Arkin, Argo

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Who’s Probably Also In:

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Who Could Be In Instead:

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

            It’s pretty much impossible to win an Oscar without at least a SAG nod, because the Actors’ Branch of the Academy is a subset of the Guild’s voting body.  The SAG lineup this year – Arkin, Bardem, DeNiro, Hoffman, and Jones – guarantees a repeat winner.  Drat.  It’s a tough call as to which of the top eight contenders will still be standing tomorrow morning (Dwight Henry is the only long shot.)  Let’s say the Django fellas cancel each other out, and in the face-off between the box-office smashes, the Bond villain falls short, making McConaughey the only first-time nominee.