Best Actor

Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

George vs. Brad got a last-minute dash of Jean!

Pitt could still win; he’s the star of two Best Picture nominees, as well as many of Oscar’s favorites in recent years (Inglourious Basterds, Benjamin Button, Assassination of Jesse James, Babel). I’m demoting him to third-most-likely because while his performance in Moneyball is absolutely solid, it’s just not dramatic enough to knock out the competition.

Non-English-speaking foreigners are always a tougher sell for the big awards, because we may never see them in a stateside film again. America fell in love with Roberto Benigni 13 years ago, and that Oscar “investment” didn’t pay off very well. (Marion Cotillard, on the other hand, looks like she will be delighting American audiences for years to come.) Dujardin stole the SAG award, and kept his momentum going with self-spoofing appearances on Saturday Night Live and Funny or Die. He could overcome the Academy’s usual prejudice against comedy because of the level-of-difficulty factor: He gave a winningly effective performance without the aid of any dialogue or sound, and his character’s performances in the film-within-a-film were spot-on-impressions of the silent acting style.

I still think Clooney will prevail. This role showcases the best of his dramatic and comedic abilities, and he was mesmerizing whether his scene partners were adults, children, a comatose person, or just the impossibly beautiful scenery. The Artist and The Descendants are going to split the major awards, so score this point for the Hawaiians.

Prediction: George Clooney. Personal Pick: I didn’t see A Better Life, and TTSS is far from Gary Oldman’s most interesting work; I’m good with any of the other three. Though if Clooney is upgraded to a Best Actor winner, it makes it all the more frustrating that the 2005 Supporting Actor award didn’t go to Paul Giamatti!