BEST ACTOR

Who’s In:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Who’s Probably Also In:

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

Who Could Be In Instead:

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Jack Black, Bernie

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

            The five SAG nominees were all endorsed by the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice awards, which makes my first five predictions a pretty solid bet.  It leaves crazy Joaquin Phoenix out in the cold, an early favorite who blew it by shooting his mouth off about how much he hates the Oscar race (after we still hadn’t fully forgiven him for the fake-mental-breakdown stunt), so I don’t think he’ll capture many hearts in the final stretch.  A few months ago, it seemed we would have two U.S. presidents on this short list, but negative reviews for Hyde Park… have all but killed Bill Murray’s chances of bringing FDR to the table.