BEST ACTRESS

Who’s In:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who’s Probably Also In:

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Who Could Be In Instead:

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Who I Really Hope Isn’t In:

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Maggie Smith, Quartet

            It’s nice to see enough leading roles for women to make the race interesting.  Critics’ favorites Riva and Weisz were passed up by the Guilds and the Globes, making way for Cotillard (whose film hasn’t been well-reviewed) and Mirren (ditto.)  Look out for Quvenzhane Wallis, a 9-year-old Louisiana native who was ineligible for a SAG nod (because her low-budget film was a non-union production), but has the best chance of carrying the flag for this beloved indie.  Fun Fact: Wallis would break the record for the youngest lead actress nominee ever, previously broken by Keisha Castle-Hughes in 2003…which was the year Miss Wallis was born!  Whoever makes the last spot, the Academy can agree to lay off Meryl Streep for at least a year, right?  RIGHT?!?!