Best Actress

Career Oscar nominations for acting:

Jennifer Lawrence: Winter’s Bone (2010), Silver Linings Playbook (2012).

Naomi Watts: 21 Grams (2003), The Impossible (2012).

Jessica Chastain: The Help (2011), Zero Dark Thirty (2012).

Emmanuelle Riva: Amour (2012).

Quvenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012).

Wallis is the only one who’s definitely out.  The general feeling about actors this young – she is all of nine years old – is that they may be talented, but they’re too young to have their own craft or process, and it is the careful work of a director that brings out their performance.  (Also, on a more empathic level, most people don’t want to see such a young child ruined by too much success; let her have a normal childhood and hopefully she’ll begin an illustrious career when she’s old enough to handle it.)  The few actresses under 18 who have won Oscars all did so in the supporting race.

Emmanuelle Riva’s lack of a SAG nod indicates she might not have enough support to win; she’s the oldest Best Actress nominee ever, but she’s not well-known enough in the U.S. to gather the sentimental vote.  On the other hand, the ceremony falls on her 86th birthday, so that might do the trick.

Naomi Watts has a real shot at this, with passionate fans of her raw, physical performance.  She is hurt by her film’s lack of any other nominations, and perhaps voters will hold off on her, figuring she could win next year for her performance as Princess Diana.

Closer to the finish line are Best Picture stars Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain.  (I can tell my generation has come of age when the Best Actress race is a Jennifer/Jessica face-off: Expect more of these over the next decade!)  Both could be the sole winners from their respective films.  I’m giving the edge to Lawrence because of her SAG victory, and because of the variety/level of difficulty of her performance: While Chastain’s steely reserve was perfection, Lawrence masterfully juggled comedy, tragedy, and hodge-podge of dancing styles.

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Personal Pick: All four adults would make worthy winners.  And I truly hope the delightful Miss Wallis gets a few more years of being a goofy kid before her next nomination.