Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

I never thought I’d say this, but the Academy got it right! After seeing The Reader and Revolutionary Road, I learned that Kate Winslet’s performance in the first film is absolutely a leading role – it had no business competing for Supporting Actress at the Globe and Guild awards – and superior to her performance in the second film. Kate’s category switch had some wondering if her Oscar chances had been spoiled, if she would have had a better chance winning Best Actress for her marital quarrels with Titanic co-star Leonardo DiCaprio as directed by her real husband Sam Mendes, rather than as an unrepentant Nazi who seduces a teenage boy. I would argue that neither character is likeable, and while Winslet sometimes struggles with the overripe dialogue in RR, she is haunting as a woman without a conscience in The Reader, an uncomfortable reminder of how evil can be carried out by ordinary people. Furthermore, Best Actress characters don’t have to be pillars of morality: See the wins for Charlize Theron, Kathy Bates, and Louise Fletcher. The main reason I think her chances aren’t spoiled is that she has scored for The Reader no matter what category she is in. For her to be nominated in this category, she had to get not only more votes for The Reader in the lead rather than supporting category, but more votes for The Reader than RR. (It is possible she received enough votes to get two Best Actress nominations and one Supporting, but Academy rules state that actors cannot compete against themselves in the same category, nor can the same performance be nominated for both lead and supporting; if either or both scenarios occurred, the performance with fewer votes would be discarded.) And while the Academy overwhelmingly preferred her in The Reader, she still managed to win the SAG award in the supporting category. This is also her sixth nomination without a win, and the consensus among her peers is that this is her year. Former winner and tabloid mainstay Angelina Jolie can’t touch her. Relative unknown Melissa Leo was lucky just to land in the top 5. Anne Hathaway will probably win someday, but for now she’s too young, and her film received no other nominations. Meryl Streep won the SAG award because she didn’t have to compete against Winslet in The Reader, and it would be obscene for Streep to pick up a third Oscar while Winslet loses for a sixth time. (Which, by the way, would tie her with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter for the Most Losing Actress in Academy history.) Prediction and Personal Pick: Kate Winslet (As much as I enjoyed Streep’s Bronx accent, Winslet and Hathaway were a class ahead, and I am on the Kate-Must-Win train. But I didn’t catch up to Frozen River and didn’t want to see Changeling.)