Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Surprise nominee Michael Shannon is out; winning without at least a SAG nod is 99% impossible. Philip Seymour Hoffman is out; he just won Best Actor three years ago and hasn’t commanded any type of lead in the race. Josh Brolin is a slender possibility, since he’s been hot lately with No Country For Old Men and W. (Milk may have been a better film than W, but he was much better in the latter film. In fact, can I switch him with Brad Pitt so they’re both nominated in the right categories for the right roles?) Robert Downey Jr. has a marginally better shot, since he was possibly the most successful star of 2008 with both Iron Man and Tropic Thunder. It’s true that the Ben Stiller film is not the Academy’s typical cup of tea, but Downey transcended their usual prejudice against straight-up comedy by standing on the knife-edge of bad taste without stumbling. But even that performance wasn’t the best trick of the year. No one has ever been nominated for a comic book film until this year, because no actor brought such vivid psychological shadings to a cartoon role as Heath Ledger did with The Joker. Oscar buzz for his work began before he died, so let’s not forget that he will win because he absolutely deserves it. Posthumous acting nominations have gone to Jeanne Eagels, James Dean, Spencer Tracy, Ralph Richardson, and Massimo Troisi, but only Peter Finch (in Network) was voted a posthumous acting trophy; this year he will have distinguished company. Prediction and Personal Pick: Heath Ledger (The show’s producers have kept it a secret who will accept the award if he wins, but the statuette will become the legal property of his 3-year-old daughter Matilda when she turns 18.)