Best Actress

The award for biggest surprise of the year goes to Anne Hathaway. The 26-year-old actress, best known for Disney-produced or Prada­-clad fluff, and never before mentioned as a possibility for an Oscar nod, suddenly leapt to the front of the race with a startling performance as a recovering drug addict in Rachel Getting Married. But the race is far from over; she’s up against five-time loser Kate Winslet. Under the direction of her husband Sam Mendes, her performance has critics, insiders, and fans wondering if this will finally be her year. (Actually, add Winslet herself to that list, since she has publicly but politely declared she would love to win, and even hilariously sent-up her losing streak on the British comedy series Extras.) Third most likely to be nominated is…oh, yawn, it’s Meryl Streep again. The fabulous but over-awarded actress will break her own record as the most nominated performer in Academy history with a ridiculous 15th nomination. This time she’s a nun; it’s hard to believe two of Oscar’s favorite things – Streep and nuns – haven’t overlapped until this year. The last two slots are trickier; I’ve decided against Cate Blanchett, because early buzz for her has faded, and with four nominations in the past four years, perhaps it’s time to take a small break from Blanchett. The English Patient star Kristin Scott Thomas was also touted as an early contender, but her French-language film hasn’t connected to viewers as strongly as was expected. Brokeback Mountain nominee Michelle Williams is also a long-shot, in perhaps the tiniest, lowest-budget film ever to ask “for your consideration.” So the list will be finalized with some combination of Sally Hawkins, Angelina Jolie, and Melissa Leo. Hawkins scooped up the bulk of the major critics’ awards, though she was passed over by the all-important SAG nominations. Her director Mike Leigh has done well in the Best Actress race – he guided Brenda Blethyn and Imelda Staunton to nods in recent years – so that’s a big plus. Then what to do with the overexposed Angelina Jolie? Last year she received Globe and Guild nominations for A Mighty Heart but missed out on an Oscar invitation. With the same accolades for Changeling­ – another “missing family member” movie – will voters feel they owe her, or will they repeat the snub? Meanwhile, Melissa Leo, hardworking character actress from 2003 nominee 21 Grams, overcame the shoestring-budget origins of her film to land on some serious Best Actress lists, most notably the SAG and Critics’ Choice awards. It’s a tough call, but ultimately Sally Hawkins and Angelina Jolie have the heftier bids. (Know what would be great? If all three of these women were recognized and Meryl Streep gets bumped out. Because I am, after all, an Oscar communist.)