Best Actress

Cate Blanchett	Elizabeth: The Golden Age	GG, SAG	5, 1
Julie Christie	Away From Her	*NYFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *GG, *SAG	4, 1
Marion Cotillard	La Vie en Rose	*LAFC, *GG, SAG	1, 0
Laura Linney	The Savages		3, 0
Ellen Page	Juno	GG, SAG	1, 0

Cate Blanchett is the only one you can write-off completely; her second nomination as Queen Elizabeth I exists only as a novelty, not as a stepping stone to an actual win. Laura Linney may have a teensy shot at an upset; she wasn’t nominated by the SAG, and only one actor has ever won the Oscar without a SAG nomination in the history of the SAG awards. That one exception was Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock, a case of a tiny film with a late start in the race that gained momentum in the final stretch, and perhaps the same can be said for The Savages. Still, it’s quite a reach. Marion Cotillard was a revelation, with the most technically difficult performance in the group, but she may be too “foreign” to win: The Academy may love their Brits, but for any other foreigners, there lingers the uncertainty of giving an American award to someone who may rarely be seen on American screens again. We’re sure to see Canadian Ellen Page in American films for years to come, and she’s the best hope for an upset. She may be young, but at 20 she’s not a kid, she’s the only woman here in a Best Picture nominee, and the most crowd-pleasing Best Picture nominee at that. Everyone loves Juno; rabid fans could push her in. (She would squeak out Marlee Matlin, 21 years old in Children of a Lesser God, as the youngest Best Actress winner ever.) Still, Julie Christie has proven unstoppable in the race. I thought she was good but not the best of the year; apparently, no one agrees with me. After last year’s big to-do about 61-year-old Helen Mirren winning this ingénue-prone award, Christie, at 66, will become the third-oldest Best Actress winner ever. (Her first win, for Darling at age 24, is still in the record books as one of the 10 youngest winners ever.) So both of the leading role Oscars will go to people who’ve won before: Grumble, grumble. Prediction: Julie Christie Personal Pick: Cotillard, Linney, and Page were all outstanding. Any of them would be a delightful surprise. I think maybe a win for Linney would make me happiest. (But note I didn’t see Elizabeth 2: The Re-Elizabeth-ing.)