Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett	I’m Not There	*NSFC, *GG, SAG	5, 1
Ruby Dee	American Gangster	*SAG	1, 0
Saoirse Ronan	Atonement	GG	1, 0
Amy Ryan	Gone Baby Gone	*NYFC, *NSFC, *NBR, GG, SAG	1, 0
Tilda Swinton	Michael Clayton	GG, SAG	1, 0

Yet again, one actor can be immediately discounted: 13-year-old Saoirse Ronan. She’s too young, too unknown, and by the time her character “atones” for her sins, she is being played by an older actress. (Ronan, through no fault of her own, doesn’t carry the humanizing character arc, so she won’t connect with voters.) Entertainment Weekly actually thinks Tilda Swinton can win, but I think they’re crazy: Her brittle performance is spot-on but simply not dramatic enough to win. She is sure to be overshadowed by either the immersive characterizations of Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett, or the lifetime achievement vote for Ruby Dee. Blanchett eerily disappears into the skinny jeans of Bob Dylan, convincing as a man and compelling as a person. I’m demoting her to third-most-likely to win because she just won this award 3 years ago (I still think if she wins again, it will be to bump her up to a Best Actress winner), and this is one kooky movie; I can certainly imagine older voters not sitting through the whole thing out of frustration and bewilderment. It’s sooo close between critics’ darling Amy Ryan and SAG winner Ruby Dee. Ryan has the heft of performance, but she may be too unknown, and her film may not have been seen by enough people. Dee is a beloved icon, in a much more widely-seen film, but she is in it for literally 5 minutes. (I still can’t stomach the idea of sitting through another Ridley Scott movie, and Dee’s entire performance can be seen in one clip on YouTube, so…I know it’s wrong to watch a performance out of context, but I did it. Scold me if you must.) Dee made the most of her cameo appearance, but geez, an Oscar for it? This is a role smaller than Judi Dench’s in Shakespeare in Love, and only slightly larger than Beatrice Straight’s in Network. (Dench and Straight both won for these roles.) Argh! So torn, I guess I’ll just have to roll the dice and go with… Prediction: Ruby Dee Personal Pick: Yeah, Amy Ryan should get it. But I won’t begrude Ms. Dee.