Best Original Screenplay

Juno	Diablo Cody	*NBR, GG, *WGA	1, 0
Lars and the Real Girl	Nancy Oliver	*NBR, WGA	1, 0
Michael Clayton	Tony Gilroy	WGA	1, 0
Ratatouille	Brad Bird, Jim Capobianco, Jan Pinkova		2, 1 [Bird]
The Savages	Tamara Jenkins	*LAFC, *NSFC, WGA	1, 0

Cartoons don’t win. They get token nominations, but don’t win. (So don’t bet on the rat.) Lars hasn’t a chance, with no other nominations and the weakest all-around support of the five. It’s hard to say whether Michael Clayton or The Savages has an advantage over the other. Mike is the Best Picture nominee, and this could be the category it scores in (since a certain Western isn’t in competition.) Savages, on the other hand, has the more acclaimed script. But Juno has the best of both worlds: a Best Picture nominee and a respectable resume of screenplay awards. Comedies have a tough time winning the top award, but they fare very well in the writing categories: see Little Miss Sunshine, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Sideways, Lost in Translation, Gosford Park, Almost Famous, just to name examples from the current decade. Diablo Cody may be a first-time screenwriter, but she’s got the props to win. Prediction: Juno Personal Pick: An impossible call between Juno and The Savages. Either will make me cheer on my couch.