Best Actor

Remember 5 years ago, when Daniel Day-Lewis emerged from obscurity with a volcanic, dead serious, batshit insane performance in Gangs of New York? He’s done it again in There Will Be Blood, this time as a greedy oil prospector, and critics and peers are kneeling at his feet. He’s a guaranteed nominee, and at this stage the man to beat for the actual award. In second place is another former winner, George Clooney, as the harried lawyer Michael Clayton. Clooney has scooped up the few precursor awards that haven’t gone to Day-Lewis, so he’s the closest thing to a challenger. The last guy on solid footing is Viggo Mortensen, the chameleon star of three consecutive Best Picture nominees (the Lord of the Rings trilogy) and screenplay nominee A History of Violence. Mortensen was mysteriously ignored in the Best Actor race for the latter; this year, re-teaming with director David Cronenberg, he wowed film-goers again as a mysterious member of the Russian mob, and with substantial clout in the race this time, he should get his first nomination. Then the field opens up. There’s Academy favorite Denzel Washington as another mobster, but a weak critical consensus for AG, controversy surrounding the screen treatment of his real-life character, and the simultaneous release of the poorly-reviewed The Great Debaters (which he directs and stars in) has sidelined his chances. Similarly, since Charlie Wilson’s War disappointed, perennial favorite Tom Hanks is unlikely. Frank Langella got excellent notices for Starting Out… but the tiny film hasn’t been seen by enough people. James McAvoy, who many contend was the true main character of last year’s Best Actor winner Last King of Scotland, is disadvantaged by the lukewarm reception to Atonement, and besides, nominations for swoony romances usually go to the ladies, not the men. Philip Seymour Hoffman would be unlikely considering how The Savages has barely made a peep in the acting races. No Country For Old Men has been the critics’ darling this year, but that hasn’t translated into support for Josh Brolin. The last two spots, then, will go to some combination of Johnny Depp, Ryan Gosling, and Emile Hirsch. The SAG passed him up, but I still think Johnny Depp will squeak in; his peers adore him, and they can’t resist when actors show off their singing chops. Now who to pick, Hirsch or Gosling? The 22-year-old Hirsch is in a similar position to Gosling’s in last year’s race, as the hot newcomer among veterans. He also has the advantage with a dramatic role in a Best Picture hopeful; Gosling’s turn as a guy in love with a blow-up doll may be too fanciful for the voting block. So I’ll call it for Emile Hirsch.