Best Actor

There are really only two contenders in this race. DiCaprio, Smith, and Gosling are all nice young guys who may win some day, but this is not their year. None can squeeze their way in between the mighty Forest Whitaker and the marvelous Peter O’Toole.

In Whitaker’s corner is a near-unanimous consensus that he gave the best performance of the year, raking in a ton of gold trinkets from critics and peers alike. In O’Toole’s corner: It’s his eighth nomination and he still hasn’t won. O’Toole was given the lifetime achievement award four years ago, but if he loses this year, he will become the most losing actor in Oscar history. Twice before the Academy has bestowed the lifetime achievement award to a perennially snubbed actor, who then went on to grab Best Actor in his own right. Those actors were Paul Newman and Henry Fonda, and Venus feels very much like O’Toole’s On Golden Pond. Eight has also been the magic number for other long-denied actors: Geraldine Page and Al Pacino were both poised to break the all-time loser record, but finally won on their eighth nod.

But these are just numbers. The Academy has been far less prone to vote virtual lifetime achievement awards in recent years than they have in the past (see Lauren Bacall, Albert Finney), and one can’t help but feel O’Toole was playing himself. Sure, he has magical presence every moment those blue eyes twinkle on screen, but the role was hardly a stretch (a boozing, horn-dog British actor) and few could argue it’s his best work. Meanwhile, the bashful Texan Forest Whitaker is towering and terrifying as Idi Amin, adopting the Ugandan culture and language for the role, and disappearing behind the craft with child-like humor and bull-headed rage. Ultimately, I think voters will have a hard time not voting for him, and the SAG award win seemed to seal the deal.

Prediction: Forest Whitaker Personal Pick: Whitaker and Gosling were excellent, and in a way, so was O’Toole. (Haven’t seen Blood Diamond or Pursuit of Sappyness.) Can’t help but feel Whitaker deserves it, can’t help but want O’Toole to win it…