Best Supporting Actor

Mark Wahlberg is probably the least likely; it’s a small, limited role that required spouting colorful tirades rather than multi-dimensional characterization, so while the nomination is a vote of confidence for his future, this is not his year. Jackie Earle Haley took on the riskiest role of this bunch as a pedophilic sex offender, and his comeback is a sweet victory after years of being so unemployed as an actor that he worked as a pizza delivery man and limo driver. Sentiment could nudge him in, but I think ultimately the Academy will go for a bigger name. Djimon Hounsou could squeak in too, though Blood Diamond was not well-regarded and he hasn’t generated enough of that elusive “buzz” to rattle the primary competitors.

Behold the awesome power of Alan Arkin, master improvisational actor equally adept at comedy and drama. Also behold the awesome power of Eddie Murphy, still so revered for his comic genius in the 80’s, in the rare role that made use of his bravado as a performer and intelligence as an actor. A funny thing happened with Dreamgirls: First everyone was aghast at its Best Picture and Director shut-out, but then confessions of distaste for the film came leaking out of the industry. Also working against Murphy? One word: Norbit. You don’t have to have seen the universally panned non-comedy, just the cringe-worthy commercials, or even just the nauseating, omnipresent billboards to feel queasy about bestowing him with the title “Academy Award winner.”

Sentiment and admiration for 72-year-old Arkin could tip the race in his favor, but as with O’Toole, the performance might not be enough. Arkin’s backseat commentary in LMS was laugh-out loud funny, but the film doesn’t really explore his character. Murphy still has the lead with his SAG victory over Arkin, but it’s a close call.

Prediction: Eddie Murphy Personal Pick: I haven’t seen Blood Diamond, so I can only speak for four of them. I’ll be happy for Murphy or Arkin, but it was Haley who made the deepest impression on me.