Best Supporting Actress

Is Jennifer Hudson really going to win? Normally, a debut performance (and not just her film debut, but her acting debut, for any medium) is a tough sell for a win, but consider this unusual crop of actresses.

There is Cate Blanchett, who won this award only two years ago; if she ever wins again, it will probably be for Best Actress, and in any case, for more commanding work (in a better film.) She’s out. There is Abigail Breslin, who is only 10 years old. Yes, Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin beat their more grown-up competitors, but it’s quite a rarity, and Breslin’s candidacy doesn’t have the heft to overcome the odds. She’s quite the long-shot. There are Babel co-stars Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi who never share screen time but will likely share enough of Babel’s fans that they’ll split the vote. Kikuchi’s is the more technically impressive in that she learned sign language for the film and gave her entire performance without speech, but Barraza has the more sympathetic character (for me, the only person in the whole film I didn’t want to smack in the face.)

Now consider what Hudson has going for her: a brazenly assured debut that has been compared to Barbra Streisand’s in Funny Girl, highlighted by a devastating torch performance of “And I Am Telling You” that has been compared to Judy Garland’s burning “The Man That Got Away” in A Star is Born. The oft-repeated story of her comeback after that-horrible-TV-show-whose-name-I-refuse-to-mention makes for the perfect Cinderella story touch on an already strong bid. So she’s gonna win, and she’s gonna bawl her eyes out, and if you have any heart, you will too.

Prediction & Personal Pick: Jennifer Hudson