Best Actress

No chance for Penelope Cruz. There may be whispers for Kate Winslet, on her fifth try for a first Oscar, but remember that she is the youngest performer ever to rack up five nominations; you really can’t call a 31-year-old a sentimental favorite. Some may chime in for Meryl Streep, in this, the year of “The Silver Foxes,” but she’s a double-Oscar winner in a film that’s pure fluff – not the stuff to knock out fierce competition.

Judi Dench might score a few votes, since she actually earned career-best notices for Notes, and some may feel Dench deserves to be upgraded to a Best Actress winner after her supporting win for eight minutes of screen time in Shakespeare in Love. Dench actually won the British Film Award for Best Actress, possibly the only award on earth that didn’t go to The Queen.

Know that everyone, but everyone, loves Helen Mirren, and simply adores her in this film. Know that for the moment, Hollywood is suddenly aware (and pretending to be outraged) that the Best Actress race has been ruled by ingénues as of late, and a win for 61-year-old Mirren would make her the oldest winner since Jessica Tandy in Driving Miss Daisy. Know that Mirren was also adored as the first Queen Elizabeth in the BBC film this same year, and when she won the Emmy for it, she worried in her speech she might fall “ass over tit” on her way to the stage – is there any way she couldn’t give a marvelous, regal, and just a smidge naughty speech? In short, know that Helen Mirren is unbeatable.

Prediction: Helen Mirren Personal Pick: I’ll be thrilled for Mirren. She deserves to be in the club, and it would be heartbreaking if she suddenly lost after a winning-streak this hot. And yes, I can’t wait to see her white-haired beauty on the cover of every magazine on the newsstand. Funny, then, that I find myself partial to the lyrical but lived-in performance by Penelope Cruz. (If you had told me a year ago I would be charmed by Penelope Cruz over Helen Mirren, I’d have said you’re crazy!)