Best Supporting Actress

All hail A-list newcomer Amy Ryan, who is sweeping up all the major and minor awards. A bit player in former nominees Capote and You Can Count on Me, she made a splash this year with supporting roles in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and Dan in Real Life, but all the golden attention is focused squarely on her turn as a mother of a missing child in Gone Baby Gone. Ryan missed out on only two major awards, which both went to the incomparable shape-shifter Cate Blanchett as a thinly fictionalized Bob Dylan. Though many actors have been nominated for playing transsexuals, transvestites, and others of non-finite gender, it is quite the rarity for an actress to play an exclusively male character; only Linda Hunt in The Year of Living Dangerously comes to mind, and she won the supporting Oscar. The last sure thing is Tilda Swinton, an art-house favorite who had commercial success with The Chronicles of Narnia; as a different sort of ice queen, she’s sure to land the honor for Michael Clayton that she narrowly missed for The Deep End in 2001. Who will round out the list? I don’t have high hopes for Vanessa Redgrave or Saoirse Ronan, who play the same character at different ages in Atonement. Ronan is only 13 years old; a weak pre-Oscar showing could indicate a current fatigue for nominating child actors. By contrast, Vanessa Redgrave, grand dame of stage and screen, hardly needs another nomination for a mere 5 minutes of screen time. Voters may also find it unnecessary to spend a supporting nomination on box office queen and Best Actress winner Julia Roberts. (Disappointment for Charlie Wilson is another major demerit.) It’s criminal that the Academy has yet to nominate Jennifer Jason Leigh, and though she has the best shot of anyone in Margot, she’s just too far from the finish line. So, when you can’t make a strong case for anyone else, go with all the guild nominees. Hence another one for indie queen Catherine Keener, and a first nomination for 83-year-old Ruby Dee. She’s a living legend, she’s the same age as my Grandma, she has the same name as my cat; now all I have to do is actually see her performance to justify my enthusiasm.