Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck	The Assassination of Jesse James…	*NSFC, *NBR, GG, SAG	1, 0
Javier Bardem	No Country For Old Men	*NYFC, *GG, *SAG	2, 0
Philip Seymour Hoffman	Charlie Wilson’s War	GG	2, 1
Hal Holbrook	Into the Wild	SAG	1, 0
Tom Wilkinson	Michael Clayton	GG, SAG	2, 0

Again, only one contender here is sure to lose: Any sensible person loves Philip Seymour Hoffman, but he just won 2 years ago, Charlie Wilson isn’t nominated in any other category, and he didn’t get the crucial SAG nod. The nomination is its own reward. Casey Affleck was amazing in The Assassination of the Long Title, and this is only a supporting role the way Ethan Hawke’s was in Training Day or Jamie Foxx’s was in Collateral: He’s the main character, the point of view character, has the most screen time, any way you slice it he’s the star of the picture, but because he’s opposite a super-duper movie star (Brad Pitt/Denzel Washington/Tom Cruise), they demote him to the supporting race. I think Affleck may actually have a bigger part than Best Actor nominee Viggo Mortensen; the quantity of quality could be a leg up for him. On the downside, after the 3-hour There Will Be Blood, voters may not be inclined to watch another 3-hour western, and may leave their screener copies of Assassination unopened. Plus he’s a young guy who voters may not be ready to induct into the winners’ club just yet. Tom Wilkinson could carry the flag for Michael Clayton; I think he is the best shot for the film to win anything. It is a perfect Supporting Actor part: Subtle and flashy, from a well-respected character actor. I didn’t catch up with Into the Wild, so I can’t comment on Hal Holbrook; I can only say people loved his performance, and at 82 years old, he could pull off a sentimental win. The only problem for Wilkinson or Holbrook is that they will simply be annihilated by Javier Bardem, murdering their chances with a quick air-gun shot to the proverbial forehead. The dude has won everything, and oh, how everyone is falling over themselves to say how great he was, perhaps the best villain in film history. I am not a fan of his non-specifically crazy-eyed performance, but sucks to be me – the guy’s got it made. Prediction: Javier Bardem Personal Pick: Loved Casey Affleck, loved Tom Wilkinson; either would be marvelous. Didn’t see Holbrook but I’d still be happy to see him win. (Didn’t see Hoffman, either.) I have no ill-will towards Mr. Bardem personally, but I hated everything about this movie.