Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

HERE is an Oscar race, the only acting category that’s truly up for grabs; there is no front-runner because the major awards went to Best Actress upgrade Kate Winslet. The only one I’ll eliminate is Marisa Tomei, because she’s won before and didn’t get a SAG nod. Taraji P. Henson could hope for a Tilda Swinton-style victory; last year this race had no favorite, and with Michael Clayton guaranteed to lose in all the other top categories, Swinton carried the flag for her film (so just insert Henson and Benjamin Button in that scenario.) Sometimes two nominees from the same film cancel each other out (like the women of Babel), but sometimes one is a clear favorite over the other (like the women of Chicago). Doubt is definitely the latter; while everyone with good taste loves Amy Adams, the favorite performance in this film is unmistakably Viola Davis’s. Some are turned off by the weepy nature of Adams’s role, while Davis makes a quiet but passionate appearance that leaves viewers devastated. I’ll put her very close to the finish line, but since her performance is only one12-minute scene (not impossible for a win but definitely a rarity) and the Tony-winning actress is barely known in Hollywood, I’ll give the slight edge to Penelope Cruz. She was a revelation in Volver two years ago, and she was the only burst of energy and entertainment in the insufferable Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She is now respected as a serious actress, Woody Allen films often charm this category, and she did win three of the four major critics’ awards at the start of the race. Her main disadvantage is that hers is the film’s only nomination, though Angelina Jolie and Marisa Tomei have won in this category on their film’s one nod. Prediction: Penelope Cruz Personal Pick: Viola Davis was my very favorite of these five. I really hope she pulls off a steal!