Best Actor

The man to beat is grumpy ol’ Sean Penn, who is winning more awards as Harvey Milk than he did for his Oscar-winning role in Mystic River. I really hope he doesn’t become the second-consecutive repeat-Best Actor winner – I am a total communist when it comes to the Oscars – and no one wants to hear more about how Jude Law is one of our finest actors. (Nonetheless, I am dying to see this movie.) Lurching from the opposite corner is Mickey Rourke. The actor from 80’s Oscar-nominated flicks Diner and The Pope of Greenwich Village retired from acting to pursue a boxing career, got his face pummeled into oblivion, and has now made a much-heralded comeback as The Wrestler. Penn and Rourke’s independent films will square off against two major studio releases. Brad Pitt has missed out with Oscar a few times in recent years, but he is sure to get his second nomination in his most Academy-friendly collaboration with director David Fincher, an F. Scott Fitzgerald adaptation in which the titular character ages backwards; it’s the sort of gimmicky makeup role voters love. By contrast, Frank Langella wore no makeup to more closely resemble Richard Nixon, and with the best reviews of his career, he’s the last sure thing in this race. (Langella will be nominated just 13 years after Anthony Hopkins was so honored for this same role.) A Golden Globe win for Colin Farrell doesn’t mean a thing; Best Actor in a Comedy was a weak category this year, somebody had to win, but none of them will come anywhere near a nomination. I don’t think Leonardo DiCaprio will make the cut this year. He generated a great deal of press for reteaming with his Titanic co-star Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road, but as with the former film, the majority of the attention is on her performance. Clint Eastwood can never be ignored; he was a surprise acting nominee four years ago for Million Dollar Baby, and with this film, his self-proclaimed final performance before retirement, he could charm the voters into one last nod. But I’m going to give the narrow edge to Richard Jenkins, the rock-solid character actor best known as the deceased patriarch on Six Feet Under, whose star skyrocketed with this leading-role performance in a film much more beloved than Gran Torino.