Best Director and Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
The Reader, Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

The same five films are nominated in these two categories, and their fates are pretty much intertwined. Frost/Nixon is least likely, because Ron Howard has won before, and it’s the film viewers are least excited about. Harvey Weinstein, the Karl Rove of Oscar campaigns, is whipping up a fierce media push for The Reader – he’s the guy responsible for Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan – but Stephen Daldry didn’t get the crucial DGA nod, making a win for him impossible and thus a Best Picture win nearly impossible. Benjamin Button has the Forrest Gump diss working against it, and the overriding sentiment that there was room for it among five nominees, but no one loves it enough to vote it first place. Fincher may get a few votes for the level-of-difficultly factor, but not nearly enough to shake up the race. Milk has become a cultural touchstone for the backlash against Prop 8, as a story of the gay rights movement in California (albeit in a different decade); maybe some will vote for this film as a show of support, but again, not nearly enough to shake up the race. Everyone loves Slumdog Millionaire: It won awards from every major Guild, it has Cinderella story uplift, yet the portrayal of desperate poverty gives it the “serious” cred so many Oscar voters need. In short, it can’t lose. Predictions: Danny Boyle and Slumdog Millionaire Personal Pick: Again, I’m not hugely in love with any of the nominees. I’m fine as long as Button doesn’t win. And sure, I’d like to see the adorable reaction shots of Dev Patel and Freida Pinto as their film hits the jackpot.