Best Actor

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Alas, Richard Jenkins is the first candidate who can be eliminated. Squeaking into the top five will have to be its own reward; he doesn’t have the star power or Big Dramatics to knock out the front-runners. Just about the same can be said of Frank Langella. Conversely, Brad Pitt is way too overexposed and jealousy-inducing to charm the voters. His is also an oddly blank performance, and not even the best one he gave in 2008: See Burn After Reading. The face-off in this category is between the medium-sized fame and excellent performances from Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Rourke took the Golden Globe, but Penn took the major critics’ awards and the SAG. Penn’s film is up for Best Picture but Rourke’s isn’t – in fact, it was shut out of the Screenplay category, too. Both have been ranked among the best actors of their generation, but while Penn picked up this award a mere five years ago (for Mystic River), Rourke has never won before. (Last year Daniel Day-Lewis was a repeat Best Actor winner, but he was miles ahead of his competitors; in a race this close, it’s more likely voters will want to spread the wealth.) Neither actor has the cuddliest reputation, but Penn’s appearances at awards shows are usually smug, while Rourke’s have been kooky-entertaining. And while Penn has been consistently nominated over the last 15 years (this is his fifth nod), Rourke’s surprise comeback this year was one of the most talked-about stories of the year, and I think that will give him the extra boost to settle this particularly close race. Prediction: Mickey Rourke Personal Pick: I think anyone but Pitt would be deserving. I would like to see Rourke win the coin-toss, but my heart belongs to Richard Jenkins.