Nominee Reactions

Best Actor: 4/5 (Bardem instead of Gosling)

Bardem is by far is the biggest surprise in the top categories. I can't say if it's deserved, and I never will, because I refuse to see another Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu film (perpetrator of such miserable drags as Babel and 21 Grams.)

Best Actress: 5/5

Everything as expected for this round, but the year-long buzz for Annette Bening is fading as everyone jumps on the Natalie Portman bandwagon. No, not again!

Best Supporting Actor: 4/5 (Hawkes instead of Garfield)

I'm torn, as excited for John Hawkes as I am disappointed for Andrew Garfield.

Best Supporting Actress: 4/5 (Weaver instead of Kunis)

I feel bad for Mila Kunis. I wasn't a fan of her performance -- I thought she was merely as good as anyone could be in that limited role -- but she got over-hyped and let-down big-time. Guess I'll have to see this Animal Kingdom.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 5/5

Sweet! So glad Winter's Bone made the cut. It would have been nice to see Ben Affleck here. After years of speculation that he was much less than half the brains behind his winning Good Will Hunting screenplay, he really proved himself with Gone Baby Gone and The Town.

Best Original Screenplay: 4/5 (Another Year instead of Black Swan)

Damnit, Mike Leigh! He was an unexpected nominee before with and Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake, and Happy-Go-Lucky, but traditionally there have been 10 writing nominees and 5 Best Picture nominees, and he always took one of the "extra" slots; this time he actually knocked out a Best Picture heavyweight. Guess I'll have to see Another Year as well.

Best Director: 4/5 (Coen brothers instead of Nolan)

Ouch. Nolan's is the most surprising omission in the batch. Thrice he has been chosen by the Directors' Guild, thrice I have predicted him, and thrice he has been denied. I guess the Directors' branch of the Academy really hates his guts. (I can't say I'm disappointed; I pretty much hated Inception.)

Best Picture: 9/10 (Winter's Bone instead of The Town)

Yeah for WB! Again, it was on the knife-edge of inclusion alongside The Town, and it won both face-offs.

So the five "real" Best Picture nominees turned out to be Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and True Grit (all with Best Director nods), and the "extras" are Inception, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, and Winter's Bone. It's worth noting that the five directors not chosen were all nominated in the writing categories, so no one -- not even Christopher Nolan -- was truly shut out.

My overall score is 39/45. I can dig it. Behold the 83rd annual nominees:

















The Oscar ceremony will be held February 27. If you want to see all the nominees before the big night, print the handy scorecard below, and color in each block for every movie you see. It's fun!

Oscar Nomination Predictions

It was a slow year: There are only 16 films with legitimate chances at the directing, writing, and acting nominations, and my final predictions have only 13 different films making the cut. And yet the Academy still plans on bestowing 10 Best Picture nominations, which will render the distinction nearly superfluous. It was a dumb choice last year and will look especially foolish this year, so here’s to hoping the Academy takes a hint and permanently brings the roster back down to five.

A note on the abbreviations that follow: I have ranked the contenders from most to least-likely to score a nomination, and followed them with the precursor awards they have won. NYFC, LAFC, and NSFC are the New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics; NBR is the National Board of Review; and CC is the Critics' Choice Awards. All the critics' awards are the first phase of the Oscar race. GG is the Golden Globes, the silly and gaudy second phase. Most important are the third phase, the Guild awards: SAG is the Screen Actors' Guild, and WGA, DGA, and PGA are the Writers', Directors' and Producers' Guilds of America. The Writers' Guild is tricky because they have stricter nomination rules, and some of this year's top screenplay contenders -- including The King's Speech and Winter's Bone -- were ruled ineligible for their award.

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech. *NYFC, *LAFC, *CC, *GG, SAG.
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network. *NSFC, *NBR, CC, GG, SAG.
3. James Franco, 127 Hours. CC, GG, SAG, ISA.
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit. CC, SAG.
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine. CC, GG.

Alternates

6. Robert Duvall, Get Low. CC, SAG.
7. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter. GG.
8. Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version. *GG.
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole. ISA.
10. Javier Bardem, Biutiful.

Best Actress

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right. *NYFC, CC, *GG, SAG, ISA.
2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan. *CC, *GG, SAG, ISA.
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone. CC, GG, SAG, ISA.
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole. CC, GG, SAG, ISA.
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine. CC, GG, ISA.

Alternates

6. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. [CC, SAG as Supporting Actress]
7. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right. GG.
8. Lesley Manville, Another Year. *NBR.
9. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. CC.
10. Hilary Swank, Conviction. SAG.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter. *NBR, *CC, *GG, SAG.
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech. *NSFC, CC, GG, SAG.
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right. *NYFC, CC, SAG, ISA.
4. Jeremy Renner, The Town. CC, GG, SAG.
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network. CC, GG.

Alternates

6. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone. SAG, ISA.
7. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. GG.
8. Sam Rockwell, Conviction. CC.
9. Pete Postlethwaite, The Town.
10. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter. *NYFC, *CC, *GG, SAG.
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter. CC, GG, SAG.
3. Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech. CC, GG, SAG.
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan. CC, GG, SAG.
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. CC, SAG.

Alternates

6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom. *LAFC, *NBR, CC, GG.
7. Lesley Manville, Another Year. [*NBR as Best Actress]
8. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer. *NSFC.
9. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan.
10. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole.
    

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Social Network: Aaron Sorkin. *LAFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *CC, *GG, WGA.
2. True Grit: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. CC, WGA.
3. Toy Story 3: Michael Arndt. CC.
4. 127 Hours: Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle. CC, GG, WGA.
5. Winter’s Bone. CC, ISA.

Alternates

6. The Town: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, Aaron Stockard. CC, WGA.
7. I Love You, Phillip Morris: Glenn Ficarra, John Requa. WGA.
8. Rabbit Hole: David Lindsay-Abaire. ISA.
9. The Ghost Writer: Robert Harris, Roman Polanski.
10. Barney’s Version: Michael Konyves.

Best Original Screenplay

1. The King’s Speech: David Seidler. *CC, GG.
2. The Kids Are All Right: Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg. *NYFC, CC, GG, WGA.
3. The Fighter: Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy. CC, WGA.
4. Inception: Christopher Nolan. CC, GG, WGA.
5. Black Swan: Andres Heinz, Mary Heyman, John McLaughlin. CC, WGA.

Alternates:

6. Another Year: Mike Leigh. CC.
7. Toy Story 3: Michael Arndt. [see note]
8. Blue Valentine: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne.
9. Please Give: Nicole Holofcener. WGA, ISA.
10. Buried: Chris Sparling. *NBR.

Note: Toy Story 3 is a tricky case in the Adapted vs. Original category. The story is completely original, but it uses characters from the first two films. So far it has competed in the adaptation race, but it's possible the Academy could decide to run it here instead.

Best Director

1. The Social Network: David Fincher. *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *CC, *GG, DGA.
2. The King’s Speech: Tom Hooper. CC, GG, DGA.
3. Black Swan: Darren Aronofsky. CC, GG, DGA, ISA.
4. The Fighter: David O. Russell. GG, DGA.
5. Inception: Christopher Nolan. CC, GG, DGA.

Alternates:

6. True Grit: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. CC.
7. 127 Hours: Danny Boyle: CC, ISA.
8. The Kids Are All Right: Lisa Cholodenko. ISA.
9. Winter’s Bone: Debra Granik. ISA.
10. The Town: Ben Affleck.

Best Picture

The "real" ones will be:

1. The Social Network. *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *CC, *GG, PGA.
2. The King’s Speech. CC, GG, *PGA.
3. Black Swan. CC, GG, PGA, ISA.
4. The Fighter. CC, GG, PGA.
5. Inception. CC, GG, PGA.

The “extra” ones will be:

6. The Kids Are All Right. *GG, PGA, ISA.
7. True Grit. CC, PGA.
8. Toy Story 3. CC.
9. 127 Hours. CC, PGA, ISA.
10. The Town. CC, PGA.

Alternates:

11. Winter’s Bone. CC, ISA.
12. Rabbit Hole.
13. Blue Valentine.
14. Another Year.
15. The Ghost Writer.


The nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, January 25, 2011, at 5:30 a.m. (Pacific Time.) They will be announced by Academy President Tom Sherak, and last year's Best Supporting Actress winner, Mo'Nique.