Oscar Nomination Predictions

It was a slow year: There are only 16 films with legitimate chances at the directing, writing, and acting nominations, and my final predictions have only 13 different films making the cut. And yet the Academy still plans on bestowing 10 Best Picture nominations, which will render the distinction nearly superfluous. It was a dumb choice last year and will look especially foolish this year, so here’s to hoping the Academy takes a hint and permanently brings the roster back down to five.

A note on the abbreviations that follow: I have ranked the contenders from most to least-likely to score a nomination, and followed them with the precursor awards they have won. NYFC, LAFC, and NSFC are the New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics; NBR is the National Board of Review; and CC is the Critics' Choice Awards. All the critics' awards are the first phase of the Oscar race. GG is the Golden Globes, the silly and gaudy second phase. Most important are the third phase, the Guild awards: SAG is the Screen Actors' Guild, and WGA, DGA, and PGA are the Writers', Directors' and Producers' Guilds of America. The Writers' Guild is tricky because they have stricter nomination rules, and some of this year's top screenplay contenders -- including The King's Speech and Winter's Bone -- were ruled ineligible for their award.