Pretty Dresses!

I love love LOVE when an Oscar dress takes a whirl around the color wheel, and Maggie Gyllenhaal, Rachel McAdams, and Sandy Powell all rocked the multi-colored look. Gyllenhaal's was especially bold, McAdams's was like a watercolor painting, and Powell kept proud the tradition of Best Costume Design winners looking exceptionally funky.
















Here's what I think happened: Gabourey Sidibe thought, "Omigod, wouldn't it be great if all us Precious gals wore shades of...SAPPHIRE?" And Paula Patton was the only one who didn't check her email. Sidibe's dress is my favorite, with the jeweled leaf work. Mo'Nique looked very elegant, especially with the Billie Holliday flowers in her hair. Sherri Shepherd and Oprah Winfrey were classy in simple navy. Of course Mariah Carey had to bring The Skank, with insufficient fabric on her tits and thighs. (A shame, because her dress was a great color and I love the brooch at the waist.) I've got to hand it to Paula Patton, though: I admire anyone brave enough to wear tangerine, especially when that pregnant!




















Blue was quite popular Sunday night. Helen Mirren's periwinkle dress was just dreamy, and Virginia Madsen's gown had some interesting vintage details. (But why was she there this year?) Actress Suzy Amis, wife of James Cameron, was unsurprisingly clad in a Na'vi-esque gown (though it was terribly unflattering.) Elizabeth Banks's ruffled skirt was kind of fun, but Kristen Stewart's dress was just dull.

























I love me some purple, but all three of these dresses are majorly awkward. The cut of Molly Ringwald's gown was messy and unflattering, and her severe jewelry and strangely-sculpted bangs only made things worse. Charlize Theron would have been stunning in two-toned lilac, if those roses hadn't snuck up from behind and cupped her breasts. And Zoe Saldana's get-up had about five motifs too many: The crystal bodice set in lavender is beautiful, but the weird slit and sea-urchin ruffles work against the above-the-waist elegance. (Add the color changing effect at the bottom, and you have a full-blown mess.)
























Not a whole lot in the red family this year. Sigourney Weaver wore it best, in draped crimson and jewels on her shoulder. Jane Seymour had a fun shade of watermelon. (But why was she there this year?) Penelope Cruz wore a nice shade of wine, though the dress was oddly bulky. And then Vera Farmiga took "bulky" to new heights. I'll never understand why designers wish to drown women in ruffles. Mentally, I'm erasing all the ruffles except the two along the bust line -- now there is a great dress.
















Ah, pastels to remind us that cruel winter cannot last forever! Anna Kendrick's blush gown is ever so romantic. Queen Latifah has a new personal best in ice pink and a spiral staircase of jewels around her waist. Demi Moore's peach gown was just right; any bigger and it would have crossed over from playful to messy. Diane Kruger's creamy frock was rudely interrupted by black stripes, especially the poofy collar; the overall effect is reminiscent of a poodle. Jennifer Lopez chose the cheapest looking fabric -- is it packing material? -- and there's way too much of it stapled to her waist. The hairstyle also does her a serious disservice; I believe that is the hastily-pulled-back-into-a-scrunchie look. Sarah Jessica Parker looked positively haggard in a shapeless toga, with way too much metalwork threatening to crush her breastbone.















Metallics were also a favorite this year, as seen on Kathryn Bigelow, Sandra Bullock, Miley Cyrus, Cameron Diaz, Anika Noni Rose, Amanda Seyfried, and Kate Winslet. Bullock's rises above with its intricate leaf work. Cyrus's dress was laughably ill-fitting; I think she had to stay hunched over all night to keep her boobs from falling out of those teensy little cups.
























Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep in white.
















Aaaaand the old standby, black, on Tina Fey, Faith Hill, Carey Mulligan, CCH Pounder, Barbra Streisand, and Nancy Walls. Faith Hill's ensemble belongs in one of those Old West souvenir photos. Carey Mulligan's gown is the only one to bring some interest to basic black, with silver charms in the shape of miniature silverware sewn to the bodice and skirt.




















Here are my favorite jewels: Maggie Gyllenhaal's floral trumpets, Penelope Cruz's cabochon-cut amethyst ring, Kate Winslet's matching (citrines? canary diamonds?), and Gabourey Sidibe's sapphire teardrops.


























As for the fellas, they all wore a plain old penguin suit except Robert Downey Jr., who brought some fun to the uniform with turquoise-tinted glasses, matching oversized bowtie, and nerd sneakers. Bravo!

Julie's Predictions for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards

This year’s winners are awfully easy to predict. Too easy. It makes me think some loopy things will go down Sunday night.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

No one is truly out of contention, but we can first eliminate Colin Firth, the lonely nominee from A Single Man. Likewise, Invictus underwhelmed in its nomination total, so recent winner Morgan Freeman in unlikely to repeat. George Clooney, another recent winner, has a slightly better chance by appearing in a Best Picture nominee, but too many people think he was just playing himself. Jeremy Renner also gets a tiny boost from his film’s Best Picture chances, but he’s the least-known nominee, a tough sell for the leading role categories. So it looks like an easy call for Jeff Bridges, finally winning on his fifth nomination, 38 years after his first (for The Last Picture Show). Don’t forget he’s not just a boomer favorite – he has a whole new generation of fans from The Big Lebowski, and his performance pushes all of Oscar’s buttons: He sings, he battles addiction, he loves and loses. He’s golden.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Jeff Bridges, though I really wish I had seen A Single Man in time for this writing (and I never plan on seeing Invictus.)

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Definitely not Helen Mirren; she still has that new Oscar-winner smell, and The Last Station didn’t get much love. The young ladies in Best Picture nominees – Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe – are pretty much out; they’ll need more than their first major film role to be minted with Academy Award Winner status.

As expected, this race is all about Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. Meryl was the early front-runner when her film came out in the summer, and most people (me not so much) were absolutely tickled by her warm, joyous performance as Julia Child. Some say she’s “due” to win since her last Oscar (for Sophie’s Choice) was 27 years ago, but come on, Oscars are not fruit, they don’t expire; I’m sure both her statuettes (the other for Kramer vs. Kramer) are still golden and shiny. She’s also the only nominee from her film, which indicates weak Academy-wide support, while The Blind Side managed a Best Picture nomination. This category also tends to favor actresses who are big stars, but not exactly regarded as great actresses, finally giving a knockout performance – see Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Halle Berry, and Julia Roberts from the past decade alone. Even I must admit that Bullock, who I’ve never been a fan of, elevated the sappy material of her film with the conviction of her performance. Plus she edged out Meryl Streep for the all-important SAG award, so I think that puts her just over the finish line.

Prediction: Sandra Bullock

Personal Pick: What a disappointing category this is. I won’t be totally mad if Bullock wins, I won’t feel like anyone was robbed if Streep takes it, and it would be kind of cool if Sidibe surprises. [Indifferent sigh.] But note that I didn’t catch up to The Last Station.

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

As with Morgan Freeman, disappointment for Invictus puts Matt Damon on the bench. (He’s also a former winner, not for acting but for writing Good Will Hunting.) Stanley Tucci is a beloved character actor who oughta win some day, but it won’t be for The Lovely Bones, which received no other nominations. Christopher Plummer might get some lifetime-achievement votes, but again, The Last Station didn’t make much of an impression. (The Academy has been much less inclined in recent years to choose actors simply because of their never-won status – just ask Peter O’Toole, Albert Finney, and Lauren Bacall.) Woody Harrelson might pick up a few votes for his against-type turn, but it’s hard to imagine Christoph Waltz losing. This may be the Austrian actor’s first American film, but he has inspired such a fan base that he will overcome his relative-unknown status, and carry the flag for Inglourious Basterds. He’ll be the third consecutive Supporting Actor winner to play an epically evil character (after Heath Ledger and Javier Bardem.)

Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Personal Pick: I’m fine with Waltz, but Stanley Tucci is the one who burrowed under my skin, so heinous yet unsettlingly ordinary. (But again, I didn’t see Invictus or The Last Station.)

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Mo’Nique, Precious

Penelope Cruz ain’t gonna win two years in a row. Maggie Gyllenhaal is lucky just to be nominated. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick cancel each other out. Oh, and Mo’Nique gave one of the most harrowing performances ever captured on film. Done and done.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Mo’Nique, even though the inappropriate punctuation and capitalization in her name irritate the crap out of me. (But I didn’t see Nine.)

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9, Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

An Education, Nick Hornby

In the Loop, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci, Ian Martin, and Tony Roche

Precious, Geoffrey Fletcher

Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

In the Loop received no other nominations, so it’s first on the chopping block. District 9 and An Education may be Best Picture nominees, but they are eclipsed by the “real” Best Picture nominees in this category, Precious and Up in the Air. Their face-off in the Supporting Actress category is an easy win for Precious, which is more of an actors’ showcase, but here Up in the Air will triumph, as the more writerly achievement; this is the film’s best shot at winning, and I don’t think voters will let it get shut out. Jason Reitman, like Jeff Bridges, will out-Oscar his dad.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Up in the Air, though I didn’t see District 9 or In the Loop.

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

The Messenger, Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman

A Serious Man, Joel and Ethan Coen

Up, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy, Bob Peterson

The favorite for Animated Feature always gets nominated for screenplay, but it never wins. I don’t see Up breaking that streak. The Messenger is the only competitor here without a Best Picture nod, so that’s quite a setback. The Coen brothers took home three awards apiece for No Country for Old Men and one each for Fargo; it’s definitely someone else’s turn to win.

Of the top eight categories, the closest race is between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds for this award. Basterds was not nominated by the Writers’ Guild because for some odd reason, Quentin Tarantino is not a member. 15 years ago, Pulp Fiction was ineligible for the WGA award for the same reason, which made way for Four Weddings and a Funeral to take that award, but Pulp triumphed at the Oscars. This year, The Hurt Locker won the WGA award without having to compete against the Basterds; will the same scenario play out this year, with Tarantino winning his second writing Oscar? It could happen, but I’ll give Best Picture favorite The Hurt Locker the inside track.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I loved the Tarantino and Coen films and can’t really separate them, so in the interest of spreading the wealth, I’m pulling for Tarantino.

Best Director

Avatar, James Cameron

The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

Precious, Lee Daniels

Up in the Air, Jason Reitman

Least likely is Up in the Air, a modest offering in a bold category. Precious and Inglourious Basterds just can’t compete with the showdown between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Some film journalists have tried to paint this race as a microcosm of the American culture wars, with the independent critics’ darling as the “elitist” choice and the 3D popcorn flick as the “populist” choice. I don’t buy it. You could just as easily argue that The Hurt Locker shines a light on the bravery of our troops, while Avatar trades in ham-fisted liberalism. Without assigning either film to an ideological camp, the bottom line is that The Hurt Locker is respected across the board, while Avatar is divisive; some find it magical and other-worldly, some find it simplistic and cheesy. The Directors’ Guild Award is the strongest indicator of who will win, and that gong went to Kathryn Bigelow, so we are getting our first-ever female winner for Best Director. Sweetness!

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I’m quite torn. As excited as I am for Ms. Bigelow, The Hurt Locker left me cold. I think her directing was top-notch, I just didn’t care for the material for which it was in service. Meanwhile, Tarantino’s direction was also top-notch AND I really dug the resulting film.

Best Picture

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

It’s all too obvious which five are the “extra” nominees; they’re out. Of the “real” nominees, Up in the Air and Precious are the least likely. Inglourious Basterds looms as a possible upset. Its distributor, Harvey Weinstein, has been talking smack that it’s going to sneak up from behind and win, but remember that’s what he was saying last year about The Reader taking over Slumdog Millionaire. (Yeah, right.)

Once again Avatar and The Hurt Locker face off, and here is why Avatar is going down. First of all, it isn’t nominated for writing OR acting. In the 81 years of Best Picture winners, 64 of them were nominated in the top three disciplines (directing, writing, and acting), 15 were nominated in two of the three disciplines, and just two films won Best Picture without any other major nomination (Wings in 1928 and Grand Hotel in 1932, both during the first five years of the Oscars, when the rules were changing every year and the results were truly odd winners that don’t really count as precedent for contemporary Oscar races.) This isn’t just arbitrary statistics-keeping (like, say, the number of Best Picture winners that begin with ‘A’ versus ‘H’), this indicates how much support a film has throughout the branches of the Academy. Avatar didn’t impress the Writers’ OR Actors’ branches, but The Hurt Locker did. Which leads to the second reason Avatar will lose: It has been bested by The Hurt Locker at all the major guild awards (and all Academy members are also members of the guilds, so there is substantial voter overlap.) Hurt was nominated for Actor and Ensemble cast at the SAG awards, while Avatar didn’t get a single mention. Hurt beat Avatar for the Writers’, Directors’, AND Producers’ Guild Awards. The PGA victory is the most impressive, because that group tends to favor box office hits over critics’ darlings more often than the WGA and DGA. So Cameron and company will have to dry their eyes with their billions of dollars while the Little Film That Could wins big.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I definitely prefer Bigelow’s film to Cameron’s, but of the nine nominees I saw, I was much more taken with An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, and Up in the Air.)

The Rest of the Races

I don’t specialize in these races. Here are my semi-informed guesses.

Cinematography:

The purdy landscapes and new 3D camera technology should do the trick for Avatar over The Hurt Locker…

Editing:

…but here The Hurt Locker bests its primary competitor for its precision-cut suspense.

Art Direction:

It’s hard to say where the actual art direction ends and the digital art direction begins, but Avatar was, if nothing else, the eye candy of the year.

Costume Design:

Always go with the oldest, froufiest gowns – that makes The Young Victoria the victor.

Makeup:

Always go with the most transformative makeup – in this case, the alien people of Star Trek.

Score:

The best scene in Up had no dialogue or sound effects, just music, and that jubilant music soared throughout the film.

Song:

Another easy win for Crazy Heart, in the form of “The Weary Kind” by soundtrack maestro T-Bone Burnett (of O Brother, Where Art Thou) and country singer Ryan Bingham (who, coincidentally, has the same name as Clooney’s character in Up in the Air.)

Sound Mixing:

This one always goes to the biggest action/fantasy blockbuster, which is, um, Avatar.

Sound Editing:

Ditto for Avatar.

Visual Effects:

Ditto for Avatar.

Animated Feature:

As much as I would love to see Fantastic Mr. Fox pull an upset, it’s an inevitable victory for Best Picture nominee Up.

Foreign Language Film:

The White Ribbon is the front-runner, but the front-runner often gets shafted in this loopy category.

Documentary Feature: All the buzz is with The Cove.

Julie's Own Damn Oscars (or anti-Oscars), Given By Her, Damnit!

Films of 2009 I actually saw:

Adventureland, Avatar, Away We Go, The Blind Side, Coraline, Crazy Heart, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox, 500 Days of Summer, The Hangover, The Hurt Locker, I Love You Man, Inglourious Basterds, Julie and Julia, The Lovely Bones, The Messenger, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Films (alphabetical):

Adventureland, Away We Go, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are

Worst Films (alphabetical):

Avatar, The Blind Side, The Hangover, Julie and Julia

Best Performances:

Bill Hader and Kristin Wiig, Adventureland

The cast of Away We Go

Melanie Laurant, Inglourious Basterds

Ben Foster and Samantha Morton, The Messenger

The cast of Precious

The cast of A Serious Man

Worst Performances:

Stephen Lang and Giovanni Ribisi, Avatar

Jae Head, The Blind Side (Not to pick on a little kid – I blame the director.)

Rachael Harris and Ken Jeong, The Hangover

Amy Adams, Julie and Julia

Best Trend:

Hipster-geek directors and children’s books. (Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are)

Worst Trend:

Packs of evil and/or creepy dogs. (Avatar, Coraline, Up) What’s with the dog-hating?