Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

The Messenger, Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman

A Serious Man, Joel and Ethan Coen

Up, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy, Bob Peterson

The favorite for Animated Feature always gets nominated for screenplay, but it never wins. I don’t see Up breaking that streak. The Messenger is the only competitor here without a Best Picture nod, so that’s quite a setback. The Coen brothers took home three awards apiece for No Country for Old Men and one each for Fargo; it’s definitely someone else’s turn to win.

Of the top eight categories, the closest race is between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds for this award. Basterds was not nominated by the Writers’ Guild because for some odd reason, Quentin Tarantino is not a member. 15 years ago, Pulp Fiction was ineligible for the WGA award for the same reason, which made way for Four Weddings and a Funeral to take that award, but Pulp triumphed at the Oscars. This year, The Hurt Locker won the WGA award without having to compete against the Basterds; will the same scenario play out this year, with Tarantino winning his second writing Oscar? It could happen, but I’ll give Best Picture favorite The Hurt Locker the inside track.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I loved the Tarantino and Coen films and can’t really separate them, so in the interest of spreading the wealth, I’m pulling for Tarantino.