Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

No one is truly out of contention, but we can first eliminate Colin Firth, the lonely nominee from A Single Man. Likewise, Invictus underwhelmed in its nomination total, so recent winner Morgan Freeman in unlikely to repeat. George Clooney, another recent winner, has a slightly better chance by appearing in a Best Picture nominee, but too many people think he was just playing himself. Jeremy Renner also gets a tiny boost from his film’s Best Picture chances, but he’s the least-known nominee, a tough sell for the leading role categories. So it looks like an easy call for Jeff Bridges, finally winning on his fifth nomination, 38 years after his first (for The Last Picture Show). Don’t forget he’s not just a boomer favorite – he has a whole new generation of fans from The Big Lebowski, and his performance pushes all of Oscar’s buttons: He sings, he battles addiction, he loves and loses. He’s golden.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Jeff Bridges, though I really wish I had seen A Single Man in time for this writing (and I never plan on seeing Invictus.)