Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Definitely not Helen Mirren; she still has that new Oscar-winner smell, and The Last Station didn’t get much love. The young ladies in Best Picture nominees – Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe – are pretty much out; they’ll need more than their first major film role to be minted with Academy Award Winner status.

As expected, this race is all about Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. Meryl was the early front-runner when her film came out in the summer, and most people (me not so much) were absolutely tickled by her warm, joyous performance as Julia Child. Some say she’s “due” to win since her last Oscar (for Sophie’s Choice) was 27 years ago, but come on, Oscars are not fruit, they don’t expire; I’m sure both her statuettes (the other for Kramer vs. Kramer) are still golden and shiny. She’s also the only nominee from her film, which indicates weak Academy-wide support, while The Blind Side managed a Best Picture nomination. This category also tends to favor actresses who are big stars, but not exactly regarded as great actresses, finally giving a knockout performance – see Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Halle Berry, and Julia Roberts from the past decade alone. Even I must admit that Bullock, who I’ve never been a fan of, elevated the sappy material of her film with the conviction of her performance. Plus she edged out Meryl Streep for the all-important SAG award, so I think that puts her just over the finish line.

Prediction: Sandra Bullock

Personal Pick: What a disappointing category this is. I won’t be totally mad if Bullock wins, I won’t feel like anyone was robbed if Streep takes it, and it would be kind of cool if Sidibe surprises. [Indifferent sigh.] But note that I didn’t catch up to The Last Station.