Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

As with Morgan Freeman, disappointment for Invictus puts Matt Damon on the bench. (He’s also a former winner, not for acting but for writing Good Will Hunting.) Stanley Tucci is a beloved character actor who oughta win some day, but it won’t be for The Lovely Bones, which received no other nominations. Christopher Plummer might get some lifetime-achievement votes, but again, The Last Station didn’t make much of an impression. (The Academy has been much less inclined in recent years to choose actors simply because of their never-won status – just ask Peter O’Toole, Albert Finney, and Lauren Bacall.) Woody Harrelson might pick up a few votes for his against-type turn, but it’s hard to imagine Christoph Waltz losing. This may be the Austrian actor’s first American film, but he has inspired such a fan base that he will overcome his relative-unknown status, and carry the flag for Inglourious Basterds. He’ll be the third consecutive Supporting Actor winner to play an epically evil character (after Heath Ledger and Javier Bardem.)

Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Personal Pick: I’m fine with Waltz, but Stanley Tucci is the one who burrowed under my skin, so heinous yet unsettlingly ordinary. (But again, I didn’t see Invictus or The Last Station.)