Reactions to the Nominations

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

How I Did: 5/5

Hell yes! This is the first time I have aced Best Actor. I was nervous about picking Jenkins over Eastwood, but so glad I did. Eastwood has more awards and nominations than he can even keep track of, while Jenkins will get a huge career boost from this, so I'm most pleased.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

How I Did: 3/5 (Hawkins and Winslet in Revolutionary instead of Leo and Winslet in Reader)

Biggest shock of the morning! Hugest gasp! The rug was pulled out from under the female acting races when Kate Winslet was left off the Supporting Actress list, but then her bid for The Reader bumped out her bid for Revolutionary Road. Shocking. Absolutely stunning. On the plus side, this does clear up the problem of which nomination she should push for ultimately winning her first Oscar. Elsewhere, I was sorry to see Sally Hawkins left off but very excited for Melissa Leo.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

How I Did: 4/5 (Franco instead of Shannon)

Here was the second biggest surprise of the morning: Revolutionary Road was favored to ultimately win Best Actress, but was snubbed from the nomination list, and instead its only major nomination showed up here, in the left-field choice of Michael Shannon. I didn't even include him on my discussion for this award, his candidacy was so obscure. Of course Heath Ledger was nominated, but strangely, this posthumous nomination was bestowed on the one-year anniversary of his death.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Hensen, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

How I Did: 4/5 (Winslet instead of Tomei)

Actually, I like how this works out. Winslet can't split her own vote between categories, and 10 different women are honored instead of nine. All the better when that other nomination goes to Marisa Tomei; I love her.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

How I Did: 5/5

Score! No surprises here.

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy Go Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

How I Did: 2/5 (Rachel, Vicky, and Wrestler instead of Frozen, Happy, and In)

Whoa. I knew this category would be crazy, but wow! In Bruges? Really? I groaned through the trailer for that about 10 times because it was in front of every single one of last year's Oscar contenders in the theatres. It looks like Milk has already won this award, because it is the only one here with a Writers' Guild nomination.

Best Director
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

How I Did: 4/5 (Dark instead of Reader)

Oh, come on, Academy, you suck! Now, I was not the biggest fan of The Dark Knight, but even I was hoping for Christopher Nolan on this. You guys screwed him for Memento and you screwed him for this. And instead you picked Stephen Daldry? Lame, lame, lame.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

How I Did: 4/5 (Dark instead of Reader)

I'm not as disappointed about The Dark Knight coming up short in this race, but I still think it's an incredibly weak choice to snub it for The Reader. You folks are just suckers for the Nazi movies. For only the fourth time in Oscar history, all five Picture and Director nominees match up (1964, 1981, 2005, and now 2008), and for only the third time, those five films are all nominated for screenplay awards too.

And those were the nominations. Until later...

Julie's Predictions for the 81st Annual Academy Awards

It was a terrible year for ME at the movies. I lost my [awful] job in September, just as the fall crop of Oscar contenders hit the theatres, so I’ve been too broke to see anything. So if anybody has any screener copies…ya know…I’m jes’ sayin’…


Abbreviation Guide:
NYFC, LAFC, NSFC, NBR, CC: New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics’ Awards; the National Board of Review; the Critics’ Choice awards. Prizes given by film critics.
GG: Golden Globes. Awards given by the Hollywood Foreign Press, whoever the hell they are.
ISA: Independent Spirit Awards. Given by industry film nerds.
SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA: The Screen Actors’ Guild, and the Writers’, Directors’, and Producers’ Guilds of America. These are the entirety of union members in their fields, the “elite” of whom are invited to join the Academy.

Best Actor

The man to beat is grumpy ol’ Sean Penn, who is winning more awards as Harvey Milk than he did for his Oscar-winning role in Mystic River. I really hope he doesn’t become the second-consecutive repeat-Best Actor winner – I am a total communist when it comes to the Oscars – and no one wants to hear more about how Jude Law is one of our finest actors. (Nonetheless, I am dying to see this movie.) Lurching from the opposite corner is Mickey Rourke. The actor from 80’s Oscar-nominated flicks Diner and The Pope of Greenwich Village retired from acting to pursue a boxing career, got his face pummeled into oblivion, and has now made a much-heralded comeback as The Wrestler. Penn and Rourke’s independent films will square off against two major studio releases. Brad Pitt has missed out with Oscar a few times in recent years, but he is sure to get his second nomination in his most Academy-friendly collaboration with director David Fincher, an F. Scott Fitzgerald adaptation in which the titular character ages backwards; it’s the sort of gimmicky makeup role voters love. By contrast, Frank Langella wore no makeup to more closely resemble Richard Nixon, and with the best reviews of his career, he’s the last sure thing in this race. (Langella will be nominated just 13 years after Anthony Hopkins was so honored for this same role.) A Golden Globe win for Colin Farrell doesn’t mean a thing; Best Actor in a Comedy was a weak category this year, somebody had to win, but none of them will come anywhere near a nomination. I don’t think Leonardo DiCaprio will make the cut this year. He generated a great deal of press for reteaming with his Titanic co-star Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road, but as with the former film, the majority of the attention is on her performance. Clint Eastwood can never be ignored; he was a surprise acting nominee four years ago for Million Dollar Baby, and with this film, his self-proclaimed final performance before retirement, he could charm the voters into one last nod. But I’m going to give the narrow edge to Richard Jenkins, the rock-solid character actor best known as the deceased patriarch on Six Feet Under, whose star skyrocketed with this leading-role performance in a film much more beloved than Gran Torino.

Best Actress

The award for biggest surprise of the year goes to Anne Hathaway. The 26-year-old actress, best known for Disney-produced or Prada­-clad fluff, and never before mentioned as a possibility for an Oscar nod, suddenly leapt to the front of the race with a startling performance as a recovering drug addict in Rachel Getting Married. But the race is far from over; she’s up against five-time loser Kate Winslet. Under the direction of her husband Sam Mendes, her performance has critics, insiders, and fans wondering if this will finally be her year. (Actually, add Winslet herself to that list, since she has publicly but politely declared she would love to win, and even hilariously sent-up her losing streak on the British comedy series Extras.) Third most likely to be nominated is…oh, yawn, it’s Meryl Streep again. The fabulous but over-awarded actress will break her own record as the most nominated performer in Academy history with a ridiculous 15th nomination. This time she’s a nun; it’s hard to believe two of Oscar’s favorite things – Streep and nuns – haven’t overlapped until this year. The last two slots are trickier; I’ve decided against Cate Blanchett, because early buzz for her has faded, and with four nominations in the past four years, perhaps it’s time to take a small break from Blanchett. The English Patient star Kristin Scott Thomas was also touted as an early contender, but her French-language film hasn’t connected to viewers as strongly as was expected. Brokeback Mountain nominee Michelle Williams is also a long-shot, in perhaps the tiniest, lowest-budget film ever to ask “for your consideration.” So the list will be finalized with some combination of Sally Hawkins, Angelina Jolie, and Melissa Leo. Hawkins scooped up the bulk of the major critics’ awards, though she was passed over by the all-important SAG nominations. Her director Mike Leigh has done well in the Best Actress race – he guided Brenda Blethyn and Imelda Staunton to nods in recent years – so that’s a big plus. Then what to do with the overexposed Angelina Jolie? Last year she received Globe and Guild nominations for A Mighty Heart but missed out on an Oscar invitation. With the same accolades for Changeling­ – another “missing family member” movie – will voters feel they owe her, or will they repeat the snub? Meanwhile, Melissa Leo, hardworking character actress from 2003 nominee 21 Grams, overcame the shoestring-budget origins of her film to land on some serious Best Actress lists, most notably the SAG and Critics’ Choice awards. It’s a tough call, but ultimately Sally Hawkins and Angelina Jolie have the heftier bids. (Know what would be great? If all three of these women were recognized and Meryl Streep gets bumped out. Because I am, after all, an Oscar communist.)

Best Supporting Actor

This has been a bittersweet race to follow, with the late Heath Ledger at the forefront. The introverted actor deserved to win for Brokeback Mountain but would have been too shy to give much of a speech; this year he could win but won’t be able to give any speech at all. By contrast, Robert Downey Jr. brings one of the most absurdly comedic candidacies to the race, portraying an uber-Method actor who undergoes pigment surgery to play an African-American movie role. (It’s truly an odd year when the front-runners both hail from summer blockbusters, in genres the Academy most snobbishly ignores.) Josh Brolin should safely land his first nomination, as the star of last year’s Best Picture winner with career-best notices and a respectable tally of precursor awards. Finally, Philip Seymour Hoffman is on solid footing for his second-consecutive Supporting Actor nod as the priest who squares off against Sister Streep in Doubt. The fifth lucky fella won’t be NSFC winner Eddie Marsan or Globe nominee Ralph Fiennes, both choices that reflect the endlessly offbeat/square choices of those respective organizations. Tom Cruise scored major comeback points with his cameo in Tropic Thunder, but the role is probably too small and the man himself is probably still too polarizing to make the cut. Dev Patel could be the only actor from the beloved Slumdog Millionaire to capture a nod, unless he’s too much of an unknown for voters’ tastes. So I’m going to take a chance and guess James Franco, one of the hottest breakthrough performers of 2008, gets the wild-card slot, one that would literally recognize his dramatic turn in Milk and figuratively honor his comedic turn in The Pineapple Express. (First Oscar nomination for a Freaks and Geeks alum, pretty please?)

Best Supporting Actress

Woody Allen strikes again: For 31 years, he has consistently populated the female acting categories with women from his films, and this year he will send Penelope Cruz to her second nomination. Next there’s Kate Winslet, in this race as a German woman with a mysterious past in The Reader; with this and her starring role in Revolutionary Road, she will jump from a five- to a seven-time nominee in one year. Hey, Kate: If you want to win an overdue Oscar, you have to pick which one to campaign for and stick with it; don’t end up like Julianne Moore, split between Far From Heaven and The Hours and then going home empty-handed! Two more actors from Doubt will command nominations, both Viola Davis, the Tony-winning actress in a brief but harrowing role, and Junebug nominee Amy Adams as the nun under Meryl Streep’s wing. For the wide-open fifth nod, don’t count on Hanna Schygulla, another strange pick from the NSFC, or Rosemarie DeWitt, an early contender (and rare supporting performance with the Title Role) who lost steam. It’ll be one of two classic Supporting Actress roles: a heart-of-gold/last-chance-at-love girlfriend from Marisa Tomei, or a heart-of-gold/source-of-strength Mama from Taraji P. Henson. (You may remember Hensen as the actress who sung the hook on “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” in both the film Hustle and Flow and the performance on the Oscar telecast. I bring up “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” whenever possible. ) It’s a coin-flip decision, but with Benjamin Button poised to pick up more nods than The Wrestler, I’ll call it for Taraji P. Hensen.

Best Adapted Screenplay

This year was unusually short on adaptations, so this could be the easiest race to predict. Slumdog Millionaire, adapted by Full Monty writer Simon Beaufoy, is on a roll with the Golden Globe and mounting suspicion the film could ultimately grab Best Picture. Forrest Gump winner Eric Roth has the most literary offering in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and with the film headed for a flurry of nominations, he’s a near-certainty. Then there are two writers who adapted their own stage plays for the screen: Doubt by John Patrick Shanley (an Oscar winner for Moonstruck) and Frost/Nixon by Peter Morgan (a nominee for The Queen). These four are so far ahead of the rest of the pack, but that pack is awfully small. The WGA rounded out their choices with The Dark Knight, but since the film is more admired for its performances and visual style, I don’t see the Academy following suit. Revolutionary Road opened to tepid reviews, and awards groups have almost exclusively honored its performances only, making this a long-shot for a writing nod (and completely out of the running for Director and Picture.) That leaves The Reader to bring up the rear: It’s holocaust-themed and penned by The Hours nominee David Hare, so that should tidy things up nicely. I’m hard-pressed to find any other direction the race could go: Elegy? The Secret Life of Bees? The members of the writers’ branch let their teenage daughters fill out their ballots and Twilight sneaks in?

Best Original Screenplay

HERE is the fierce competition for a screenplay nomination! There is literally only one guaranteed nomination, for the only Best Picture candidate in this contest, Milk. Then the race splinters. There are five guys the Academy loves to nominate: Charlie Kaufman, Mike Leigh, last year’s champs the Coen brothers, and the most nominated writer in Academy history, Woody Allen. There are the indie darlings, which always fare better in the screenplay awards than with Director and Picture: Frozen River, Rachel Getting Married, The Visitor, The Wrestler. Finally there is the nearly-annual animated flick with solid gold reviews, a foregone conclusion for Best Animated Feature, that is somehow always reserved the last seat at the table. This’ll be a doozy! First I’ll cross off Synedoche and Frozen River since they didn’t break out of the ISA “ghetto.” Next I’ll eliminate the Coens, because Oscar has honored them for their comparatively-highbrow offerings – the crime/morality tales Fargo and No Country For Old Men, and their Odyssey adaptation O Brother Where Art Thou? – but not for any of their all-out Bizarro-fests. (Burn is definitely the latter.) Argh, I have to eliminate two more? From the frequent-nominee category, I’ll scratch off Happy Go Lucky and predict Vicky Cristina Barcelona, because Woody got the WGA nod and Mike Leigh didn’t. In the Independent Spirit corner, I’ll give the tiniest demerit to the low-key Visitor and choose The Wrestler, a WGA nominee with a classic comeback story line that earned raves for never feeling clichéd, and Rachel Getting Married, for building strong momentum early in the season, and for its Academy pedigree: First-time writer Jenny Lumet is the daughter of four-time directing nominee Sidney Lumet. (Oscar does love a good dynasty.) Lastly, Finding Nemo creator Andrew Stanton will pick up his second writing nod for the universally-lauded Wall-E. Yet there are STILL dark-horse possibilities in Gran Torino, the Foreign-Language frontrunner Waltz With Bashir, In Bruges, even Tropic Thunder…

Best Director

The following notable films of 2008 were directed by women:

Cadillac Records, Darnell Martin
Elegy, Isabel Coixet
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, Patricia Rozema
The Secret Life of Bees, Gina Prince-Blythewood
Stop-Loss, Kimberly Peirce
Then She Found Me, Helen Hunt
Twilight, Catherine Hardwicke
Wendy and Lucy, Kelly Reichardt

On to the 78th Annual Boys’ Club. For now, the leader of the pack is Trainspotting director Danny Boyle, who left his native England to film Slumdog Millionaire in Mumbai. Another sure-fire first-time nominee is American David Fincher for his time-spanning epic …Benjamin Button. Ron Howard, a previous winner for A Beautiful Mind, is sure to be mentioned for bringing cinematic drama to two guys sitting down and talking in Frost/Nixon. Finally, Good Will Hunting nominee Gus Van Sant has directed some very odd films in the past 10 years with mixed results, but widespread praise for his stirring biopic Milk will easily return him to Oscar’s favor. The film world has wondered since July if The Dark Knight can overcome the Academy’s prejudice against action flicks. But let’s consider the competition: Revolutionary Road’s Sam Mendes is out. Stephen Daldry is pretty much out; reviews for The Reader were dutifully respectful but unenthusiastic. Indies Frozen River, The Visitor, and Rachel Getting Married are too small for the big-league races. Clint Eastwood directed two films this year, like the crazy movie-making machine he was two years ago with companion WWII films, but neither Changeling nor Gran Torino have shown any clout in this category. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler hasn’t muscled ahead of its competitors. Mike Leigh was an inexplicable Best Director nominee four years ago, so can’t be ignored, but he’s still quite unlikely. Doubt has picked up many accolades for its script and performances, but absolutely none for its director John Patrick Shanley. This category often likes to save a spot for a foreign language film, in which case Ari Folman’s Waltz With Bashir could be a surprise choice. There are even rumors that the Academy could make history with a first nod for an animated flick by drafting Wall-E. Still, the most likely candidate is Christopher Nolan, an almost-nominee for Memento, who pulled off the rare feat of making a sequel superior to the original.

Best Picture

Here is a mirror image of the Best Director contest: Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, and Milk have this one all sewn up. And with none of the remaining Best Director candidates looming larger than the rest, The Dark Knight will once again swoop in for the steal.

The 81st Annual Academy Award nominations will be announced Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 AM Pacific time (8:30 Eastern.) Normally the nominations are announced on a Tuesday, but the Academy has wisely chosen to delay the announcement by two days, because they know they can’t possibly compete with Obama’s inauguration!