Oscar 86, Baby!

Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Lupita Nyong'o, Jared Leto

The 86th Annual Academy Awards are on the books, and it was the most playful telecast in my 20 years of watching.

I Tivo'ed the red carpet pre-show, and fast-forwarded through three hours of idiocy in about 20 minutes; it was worth it for the screen grab below:

Lindsay Funke, approached by her mother's arch-rival, Lucille Austero

Ellen DeGeneres was our Mistress of Ceremonies, and she killed it. She's among the funniest humans on the planet, and her goofy sense of humor - snappy, but never too mean-spirited - was a refreshing change of pace from last year, and an all-around delight to spend three-plus hours with (even as the pointless montages tested everyone's patience.)

Ellen in sparkly blue velvet, crisp white, and giganto-pink.

Last year's Best Supporting Actress winner, Anne Hathaway, fulfilled her ceremonial duties by presenting Best Supporting Actor, and the winner was, of course, Jared Leto. He paid heartfelt tribute to his Mom, his brother, and "the dreamers" around the world.

Jim Carrey presented Bullshit Montage #1.

Kerry Washington walked on stage while the orchestra played a song from Dreamgirls, even though she was not, in fact, in Dreamgirls. Oops. She introduced Pharrell Williams, who brought the first of several highlights, dancing with three nominated actresses sitting in the front row. Meryl Streep shimmied her bosom, because she is awesome.

Pharrell Williams shakin' it with Lupita Nyong'o, Meryl Streep, and Amy Adams

My favorite category (outside of the big eight) is Best Costume Design, because the winner is usually wearing an exceptional objet d'art of her own creation. Catherine Martin, costumer and production designer for The Great Gatsby, did not disappoint in a salmon pink gown embellished with black floral, crystal beadwork, and a stunning amethyst pendant. (Her award was presented by Samuel L. Jackson and Naomi Watts.)

Catherine Martin

Jackson and Watts also gave Dallas Buyers Club Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

Harrison Ford introduced a clip package of one-third of the Best Picture nominees.

Channing Tatum congratulated the film students who won the "Team Oscar" contest.

In the first of two awkward presentations with the elderly, Matthew McConaughey helped Kim Novak present Animated Feature to Frozen.

Sally Field presented Bullshit Montage #2.

Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Emma Watson gave Best Visual Effects to Gravity.

Zac Efron introduced Karen O.'s "Moon Song."

Kate Hudson and Jason Sudeikis gave out the Short Film awards, and Bradley Cooper gave 20 Feet From Stardom Best Documentary Feature. One of the film's subjects, singer Darlene Love, took the stage with the filmmakers and sang a few bars to raucous applause.

Darlene Love, not just a backup singer

Kevin Spacey told us about the lifetime achievement awards given to Angela Lansbury and Steve Martin, which are now held at a separate ceremony, ya know, so there's more time on the telecast for stupid montages.

Viola Davis and Ewan McGregor sent Best Foreign Language Film to Italy, for The Great Beauty.

Tyler Perry set up the second-third of the Best Picture clips.

Brad Pitt was the lead-in for U2's performance.

Ellen's first stunt was to attempt to take the single most re-tweeted photo ever, and a selfie of her and Meryl turned into an everybody-in-the-front row selfie, and so the faces of Jared Leto, Jennifer Lawrence, Channing Tatum, Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ellen DeGeneres, Kevin Spacey, Brad Pitt, Lupita Nyong'o, Angelina Jolie, Lupita's brother, and cameraman Bradley Cooper proceeded to crash Twitter. Behold, the record-breaking photo:

A buncha' buds, jus' chillin'

 
One of Oscar's stranger traditions is sending a Cute Young Thing to host the Scientific and Technical Awards a week or so ahead of time, and then invite said Cute Young Thing to appear on the "real show" and talk about how much fun they had. I guess they decided it was a little sexist...so they sent a female AND male Cute Young Thing this year. The attractive people in question were Kristen Bell and Michael B. Jordan.

Chris Hemsworth and Charlize Theron gave both sound awards to Gravity.

Christoph Waltz, also fulfilling his ceremonial duties, gave us all the pleasure of hearing him pronounce the name "Lupita Nyong'o" and he handed her the Best Supporting Actress trophy. She was teary, gracious, and said, "It doesn't escape me for one moment that so much joy in my life is thanks to so much pain in someone else's."

Ellen's second major stunt: Bringing out the luckiest pizza delivery guy on the planet. The Nerds on the Internet assert it was a real Los Angeles pizza boy (not an actor) who was sent to deliver a stack of pies to the Dolby Theatre and hand them out to the hottest hot-shots in the room.

Is this the start of the best porno ever?

The presenter unlucky enough to follow that spectacle was Cheryl Boone Isaacs, who, Ellen informed us, is the first African-American female president of AMPAS.

Amy Adams and Bill Murray took the stage for the Cinematography award, and Murray snuck in a quick tribute to his friend and collaborator Harold Ramis, which meant I was all misty and distracted as Emmanuel Lubezki accepted the award for Gravity.

Anna Kendrick and Gabourey Sidibe tossed the Film Editing award to Gravity. Co-editor Alfonso Cuaron wisely let collaborator Mark Sanger do all the talking, since we all knew he would get his turn later.

Whoopi Goldberg, resplendent in her own brand of Hot Mess, wore chunky ruby slippers to introduce Pink, who sang "Over the Rainbow" because this year marks the 75th anniversary of the release of The Wizard of Oz. It's a pretty weak excuse for such a segment, but at least Pink's vocals were big and badass.

Jennifer Garner and Benedict Cumberbatch gave Production Design to The Great Gatsby.

Chris Evans (who?) presented Bullshit Montage #3.

Glenn Close introduced the death reel, and the image of Dr. Spengler in the annual remembrance of the dead was enough to set me off again.
 

Every year, they claim there isn't enough time to include every member of the film community who died in the past year, but they could have included everyone in the time allotted if they didn't stop the montage for Bette Midler's vocals. "The Wind Beneath My Wings" seems like a good fit for a memorial tribute, until you consider all the lyrics except the chorus. (They ARE movie stars, they didn't exactly "go unnoticed.")

Goldie Hawn finished off the three-random-Best-Picture-clips package.

John Travolta, perhaps under the influence of some killer sedatives, pronounced "Idina Menzel" as "Adele Dazeem," in an instant-classic blooper. She blew the roof off with the Frozen song anyway.

Jamie Foxx did his best Chariots of Fire impression while Jessica Biel gave Gravity Best Score, followed by Best Song to Frozen. The announcer was kind enough to inform us that this victory made songwriter Robert Lopez an EGOT winner - in your face, Tracy Jordan! He and his co-writer/wife Kristen Anderson-Lopez gave an adorably sweet speech and thanked their little daughters.

The directors and songwriters of Frozen

The funniest terrible set-decoration was the sudden appearance of rows and rows of typewriters as Penelope Cruz and Robert DeNiro gave the writing awards to John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave and Spike Jonze for Her.

John Ridley

Spike Jonze

The second awkward presentation of the elderly arrived when Angelina Jolie led a frail Sidney Poitier across the stage for the Best Director award. Poitier had difficulty reading the envelope, so Jolie read the name Alfonso Cuaron. He didn't top the "I'm going to give you herpes" line from his Golden Globe speech, but he was still fun.

Alfonso Cuaron

Danny D-L settled the Best Actress contest for Cate Blanchett. She ever-so-cautiously thanked her director, winkingly told "Julia" [Roberts] to "suck it," and praised Sandra Bullock: "I could watch your performance 'til the end of time...and I feel like I did." (I'm sure in her head, it sounded like a compliment, but...) She also elicited hoots and hollers of approval with the assertion that films about women are not "niche."

Jennifer Lawrence pulled Matthew McConaughey's name out of the envelope, and he did us all a solid by giving a perfectly ridiculous speech: He evoked his father drinking a Miller Lite in heaven, name-checked "Charlie" Laughton (the Best Actor winner from precisely 80 years ago), and shared his philosophy that we all need someone to look up to, someone to look forward to, and someone to chase. It was nutty, but that's why we love him.

Will Smith carried out the last envelope. Gravity had seven wins, and 12 Years a Slave had just two. The race seemed to be over, but 12 Years made it after all. Producer Brad Pitt collected his first Oscar. (Last year, Clooney picked up a trophy as a producer of Best Picture winner Argo, this year it's Brad Pitt...is Matt Damon producing a movie right now? If so, it's already the favorite to win next year.) He spoke quickly and ceded the microphone to director and co-producer Steve McQueen, who nervously rattled off some names in thanks, and then jumped for joy.

The 12 cast and crew

The finally tally is nearly record-breaking: Gravity's seven wins without a Best Picture victory puts it just behind Cabaret (1972), for most wins without taking Best Picture. And poor American Hustle, losing all ten of its bids, is one loss shy of the record held by The Turning Point (1977) and The Color Purple (1985), for the biggest shut-out in Academy history.

 THE PRETTY DRESSES

Roberts, Nyong'o, Adams, Blanchett, Lawrence, Hawkins, Bullock, Squibb, Streep

Judi Dench didn't make the ceremony because she's shooting the sequel to The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel in India, but the other nine nominated actresses all showed up. Left to right: Julia Roberts had some nice lace detailing on an otherwise dull gown. Lupita Nyong'o was just heavenly in sky blue. Amy Adams had a nice (if simple) blue dress, but the real stars of her ensemble were her coral and sapphire earrings. The shade of Cate Blanchett's dress is too bland for my taste, but the detailing was exquisite and her opal earrings were out of this world. Jennifer Lawrence wore the same shade of tomato red as she did three years ago, but she looks great in it. Sally Hawkins seems to be of the defiantly-unfashionable mindset, which I can dig. (Still don't like the dress, though.) Sandra Bullock was safely elegant in draped navy. June Squibb has been a total fashion rock star this awards season, and did not disappoint in sumptuous emerald. Meryl Streep wore a very Streepy dress, but I did like her bracelets.

Anna Kendrick, Anne Hathaway

There was way too much boring black; notable exceptions were Anna Kendrick's coral-red paneling and Anne Hathaway's blinged-out bodice.

Pinkett, Cruz, DeRossi, Delpy, Garner

There were also way too many bashful hues. Those who rose above the boredom include Jada Pinkett in elegantly wrapped coral pink; Penelope Cruz in a pale pink goddess gown; Portia DeRossi in exquisitely detailed ivory; Julie Delpy in gathered silver, and Jennifer Garner's swishy fringe dress.

Gabourey Sidibe, Viola Davis, Pink

 
Thanks to Gabourey Sidibe, Viola Davis, and Pink for going bold. Sidibe's second Oscar appearance has her again in a gorgeous jewel tone with elegant textures. Viola Davis is a knockout in the same color and skirt shape that I wore to my junior prom, every inch as stunning as I was awkward (!) Pink wore the gown equivalent of the ruby slippers for her Wizard of Oz performance.

Samberg, Offerman, Mullally, Scott, Hader, Murray, Rudd, and Poehler

Not to be outdone by Ellen's group photo, the funniest people at the Oscar parties snapped these pics of some sort of Amy Poehler-throwing event. Ah, to be a fly on that wall!

And so it was, my Oscar fix for the year. Cheers, everybody.

Winner Predictions

Best Actor

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
26%	Matthew       McConaughey	Dallas Buyers Club	*SAG, *GG, *CC, ISA	1,0
24%	Chiwetel Ejiofor	12 Years a Slave	SAG, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
23%	Bruce Dern	Nebraska	SAG, GG, CC, *LAFC, *NBR, ISA	2,0
22%	Leonardo DiCaprio	The Wolf of Wall Street	*GG	4,0
5%	Christian Bale	American Hustle	GG, CC	2,1

Generally speaking, an actor can’t win an Oscar without at least a SAG nomination, but sometimes, the Oscar nominations push the reset button on the race, and votes realign. Last year, for example, it’s probable that Christoph Waltz and Leonardo DiCaprio split the vote for Django Unchained, resulting in neither getting a SAG nod, but with only Waltz making the Academy’s short-list, perhaps he picked up the majority of DiCaprio’s fans to pull off his upset win. DiCaprio now seems to be on the opposite end of such a redistribution: With three major front-runners (Tom Hanks, Robert Redford, and Forest Whitaker) falling out of contention, there are a huge chunk of votes up for grabs, and DiCaprio seems to be picking up the bulk of them. It still doesn’t make him the favorite. Bruce Dern could pull off a lifetime-achievement victory, Chiwetel Ejiofor could easily steal with his wrenching work in a Best Picture favorite, and Matthew McConaughey’s winning streak (along with his astonishing body of work in the last two years) moves him to the front of the pack. Just barely.

Prediction: Matthew McConaughey (and I further predict his speech will be just bonkers)

Personal Pick: My heart belongs to Chiwetel Ejiofor

Best Actress

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
35%	Cate Blanchett	Blue Jasmine	*SAG, *GG, *CC, *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC, ISA	6,1
32%	Amy Adams	American Hustle	*GG	5,0
17%	Judi Dench	Philomena	SAG, GG, CC	7,1
15%	Sandra Bullock	Gravity	SAG, GG, CC	2,1
1%	Meryl Streep	August: Osage County	SAG, GG, CC	18,3

Word on the street was that voters would love to coronate Amy Adams on her fifth attempt at an Oscar, but couldn’t justify voting against Cate Blanchett. And then a stomach-turning scandal broke involving the writer-director of Blue Jasmine. Of course no one blames Ms. Blanchett for any of this, but voters may want to distance themselves from the film. Adams, like DiCaprio, is quickly making up for lost ground from the SAG nominations – and she did win a SAG award for her performance, as part of the film’s ace ensemble – and is now positioned as the most likely spoiler. I think there’s also a possibility of a surprise win for Dench, who, at age 79, has expressed concern for her ability to continue acting, so this may be her last nomination. (Recall that her one win was for an eight-minute cameo role in Shakespeare in Love.) Love for Gravity could even spill over to Sandra Bullock, but if Meryl wins, we riot.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett gets upgraded to a Best Actress winner, for which I can’t really complain.

Personal Pick: Go, Amy, go!

Best Supporting Actor

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
40%	Jared Leto	Dallas Buyers Club	*SAG, *GG, *CC, *NYFC, *LAFC, ISA	1,0
25%	Michael Fassbender	12 Years a Slave	SAG, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
15%	Barkhad Abdi	Captain Phillips	SAG, GG, CC	1,0
11%	Bradley Cooper	American Hustle	GG, CC	2,0
9%	Jonah Hill	The Wolf of Wall Street		2,0

This is the easiest acting race to call. Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill are in about the same place, on their second nomination with their second “grown-up” movie, but I don’t think Oscar’s ready for them just yet. Barkhad Abdi is nominated for his very first acting job ever, which makes for an uphill battle but not an impossibility [see the Supporting Actress race]…and having no films on your resume is better than having The Hangover. Michael Fassbender was terrifyingly good and has been on quite a hot-streak in recent years. Yet it’s impossible to imagine Jared Leto losing this one after winning every other award in existence. He gave a performance of devastating beauty and astonishing physical transformation that won’t be passed over.

Prediction: Jared Leto

Personal Pick: I will be delighted for Mr. Leto, but I’m a sucker for the deranged, goofy, sexy, pathetic creature that Bradley Cooper brought to life. I love him in D.O. Russell films even more fervently than I hate him in “bro comedies.” 

Best Supporting Actress

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
35%	Lupita Nyong’o	12 Years a Slave	*SAG, GG, *CC, *LAFC, ISA	1,0
34%	Jennifer Lawrence	American Hustle	SAG, *GG, CC, *NYFC, *NSFC	3,1
26%	June Squibb	Nebraska	SAG, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
4%	Sally Hawkins	Blue Jasmine	GG, ISA	1,0
1%	Julia Roberts	August: Osage County	SAG, GG, CC	4,1

Absolutely no one feels the need to give Julia another win at this time, and while Sally Hawkins has her fans, her candidacy is far too modest for this group. June Squibb’s bitter, cranky scene-stealer is a possibility, but the favorite comedic performance is Jennifer Lawrence’s. In the opposite corner is Lupita Nyong’o’s heartbreaking characterization of a woman unspeakably wronged by society. Nyong’o, like Barkhad Abdi, is nominated for her film debut, which puts her at a slight disadvantage (Academy members generally like to honor those who have paid their dues), but her primary competition comes from the reigning Best Actress winner. Can Lawrence really win two years in a row (at all of 23 years old)?

Prediction and Personal Pick: Lupita Nyong’o

Best Adapted Screenplay

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
22%	John Ridley	12 Years a Slave	GG, *CC, ISA	1,0
21%	Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope	Philomena	GG, CC	1,0 1,0
20%	Billy Ray	Captain Phillips	*WGA, CC	1,0
19%	Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater	Before Midnight	WGA, *LAFC, CC, *NSFC, ISA	2,0 2,0 (writ.) 2,0
18%	Terence Winter	The Wolf of Wall Street	WGA, CC, *NBR	1,0

In a way, this is the closest of the major races, because no one’s definitely out, nor is anyone definitely in.  Wolf scored far more nominations than expected, though I think it’s hated too much to muscle ahead of the competition. Everyone loves Linklater’s Before trilogy, and voters might want to symbolically honor all three films with this award. Captain Phil was the surprise WGA winner, but I think that’s only because the more likely candidates were ineligible. I think Philomena was left off the WGA list because neither British writer belongs to the American guild. Coogan is a well-liked comedian, and co-wrote such an unexpectedly tender drama that he might pull off a dark-horse victory. It would seem that 12 Years a Slave, in a three-way race for Best Picture (and with neither of its primary competitors in the Adaptation category), would be a shoo-in. But consider the reason 12 Years was ineligible for the WGA award: During the writers’ strike of 2008, John Ridley resigned from the guild and continued to work. That is not a professional move the film industry will take lightly. Lingering resentment could certainly be a factor.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

Personal Pick: I’m kinda-sorta-split between 12 Years, Philomena, and Before Midnight

Best Original Screenplay

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
40%	Spike Jonze	Her	*WGA, *GG, *CC	1,0 (writing)
39%	David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer	American Hustle	WGA, GG, CC, *NYFC	2,0 (writ.) 1,0
11%	Bob Nelson	Nebraska	WGA, GG, CC, ISA	1,0
10%	Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack	Dallas Buyers Club	WGA	1,0 1,0
0%	Woody Allen	Blue Jasmine	WGA, CC, ISA	16,3 (writing)

Amy Adams is going to stand up and cheer either way. Her is the undeniable front-runner, with a unique premise for a story of alienation and love lost.  But Hustle cannot be discounted, with its breathless, crackling dialogue. Jonze and Russell are both admired writer-directors, but I have to think that Russell’s phenomenal output of late will be a major factor: In four calendar years, he released three films which were all nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, and netted a combined 11 acting nods. He’s absolutely due for a win. Plus, Hustle did manage broader support among the nominations; Her missed out Director and any acting nods.  It’s so very, very close.

Prediction: Her

Personal Pick: American Hustle

Best Director

odds	name	film	precursor awards	nods/wins
39%	Alfonso Cuaron	Gravity	*DGA, *GG, *CC, *LAFC	1,0 (directing)
33%	Steve McQueen	12 Years a Slave	DGA, GG, CC, *NYFC, ISA	1,0
23%	David O. Russell	American Hustle	DGA, GG, CC	3,0 (directing)
3%	Alexander Payne	Nebraska	GG, ISA	3,0 (directing)
2%	Martin Scorsese	The Wolf of Wall Street	DGA, CC	8,1 (directing)

We’ll have either the first Best Director winner of Latin-American descent, or the first of African descent, so I guess that’s kind of cool.  Mexican auteur Cuaron should keep up his winning streak against British newcomer McQueen.

Prediction: Gravity

Personal Pick: I think Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell all wrought mighty (and mightily dissimilar) films.

Best Picture

odds	film	precursor awards	total noms
27%	Gravity	*PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC	10
26%	12 Years a Slave	*PGA, *GG, *CC, ISA	9
22%	American Hustle	PGA, *GG, CC, *NYFC	10
7%	Nebraska	PGA, GG, CC, ISA	6
6%	The Wolf of Wall Street	PGA, GG, CC	5
5%	Her	PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC, *NBR	5
4%	Dallas Buyers Club	PGA, CC	6
2%	Philomena	GG	4
1%	Captain Phillips	PGA, GG, CC	6

Gravity has the upper hand with the Best Director favorite, but also the lower hand without a writing nomination. 12 Years has the most compelling story. American Hustle has the most pure cinematic joy. My guess is Gravity, maybe by a single vote.

Prediction: Gravity

Personal Pick: American Hustle

     * THE REST OF THE RACES *

Cinematography: The blended photography and animation of Gravity.

Editing: Probably another one for Gravity.

Art Direction: Always bet on the most frou-frou, which I think means The Great Gatsby.

Costume Design: The coolest costumes never win, so I think the dazzle of The Great Gatsby will edge out the retro-fabulous American Hustle.

Score: Probably another one for Gravity.

Sound Editing: Probably another one for Gravity.

Sound Mixing: Probably another one for Gravity.

Visual Effects: Definitely another one for Gravity.

Makeup: Absolutely Dallas Buyers Club over two of the worst-reviewed movies of the year.

Song: People like U2 for some reason, but their limp song will be creamed by Frozen.

Animated Feature: People really like that Frozen.

Foreign-Language Film: There’s no obvious hit; my ill-informed guess is The Great Beauty.

Documentary Feature: The agonizing Act of Killing is generally agreed to be the best of the year, ahead of the more enjoyable 20 Feet From Stardom.

     * Julie’s Own Damn Oscars (or Anti-Oscars), Given By Her, Damnit! *

Films I Actually Saw:

American Hustle; August: Osage County; Before Midnight; Blue Jasmine; The Butler; Captain Phillips; Dallas Buyers Club; Enough Said; Frozen; Fruitvale Station; Gravity; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska; Philomena; Saving Mr. Banks; The Spectacular Now; 12 Years a Slave; The Way, Way Back; The Wolf of Wall Street

Favorite Films:

American Hustle

Nebraska

Enough Said

Before Midnight

Least Favorite Films:

The Wolf of Wall Street

Inside Llewyn Davis

Captain Phillips

The Spectacular Now

Favorite Performances:

Everyone in American Hustle

Will Forte and Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back

Most Vivid Characters:

American Hustle

Least Vivid Characters:

The blur of nameless and practically faceless people in Captain Phillips

Most Heart-Warming Use of Paul Giamatti:

Saving Mr. Banks

Most Bone-Chilling Use of Paul Giamatti:

12 Years a Slave

Spookiest Doppelganger:

Max Casella channeling the ghost of Bruno Kirby, Blue Jasmine

Most Gratuitous Imperilment of Animals:

Inside Llewyn Davis

The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Stand-Alone Visuals:

The passionate embrace inside the dry-cleaning clothesline, American Hustle

LBJ taking a dump while surrounded by his dogs, The Butler