Insert SAG Pun Here

Nyong'o, Blanchett, McConaughey, Leto, American Hustle

There are many different breeds of "pre-Oscar" awards. The various film critics' awards have some influence, but there's no overlap in voting membership. Ditto for the entertainment journalists who give out the Golden Globes. But Academy voters are all union members, and that's who votes on the Guild awards, so they are by far the strongest indicator of how Oscar will divvy up their gold. This makes Cate Blanchett, Jared Leto, Matthew McConaughey, and Lupita Nyong'o - last night's SAG award winners - the front-runners for Oscar glory.

The SAG award for Best Ensemble Cast is not - I repeat, NOT - a "Best Picture equivalent." This year is an especially obvious example, with a film like Gravity, which is in a three-way race for Best Picture, but was obviously not nominated for Best Ensemble at this awards ceremony, because there's only one actor onscreen for roughly half the movie. American Hustle, with four actors up for Oscars, easily took home the SAG's ensemble award.

Rita Moreno, Morgan Freeman

The highlight of the evening was the astonishing Rita Moreno, recipient of the lifetime achievement award, who is probably the sexiest octogenarian on the planet. She rocked a daring, high-slit dress with a bad-ass studded jacket. She glided to the stage and danced with presenter Morgan Freeman. She cracked jokes, made flirtatious overtures to Jeremy Renner and Brad Pitt, and sang a capella - twice - in a voice as clear and gorgeous as ever. She should be everyone's new crush, immediately.

Blanchett, Bullock, Streep, Thompson

Four of the Best Actress nominees were present. Cate Blanchett wore lovely shades of pink, and an elegant halter neckline, although the shapeless middle of the dress was unflattering. Sandra Bullock was almost perfect in emerald green - death to the giant bow! Emma Thompson sported a fun sequined peacock.

Lawrence, Nyong'o, Roberts, Squibb, Winfrey

All five supporting actress nominees were present, and apparently no one took a decent photo of June Squibb; this was the best I could find. Again, she is lovely in regal jewel tones. Lupita Nyong'o's turquoise frock is exquisitely embellished. I thought I loved Julia Roberts's ensemble until I realized it was pants. Oprah is fabulous in royal purple and a statement brooch.



Miscellaneous favorite looks are Amy Adams in artfully asymmetrical cobalt; Julie Bowen's mid-century psychedelic print; Jane Krakowski's delicious shade of mint julep; and especially the perfectly-draped, sumptuously-colored silk floral on Juliette Lewis. Special mention must be made of Tina Fey's daughter Alice Richmond, age-appropriate and cute-as-can-be in beaded lace, a twirly pleated skirt, matching clutch, and sensible shoes. (Good job, Mom!)

Meet the Nominees

 

Barkhad Abdi

Captain Phillips, 2013 - SR

 Amy Adams

Junebug, 2005 - SS

Doubt, 2008 - SS

The Fighter, 2010 - SS

The Master, 2012 – SS

American Hustle, 2013 - LS

Woody Allen

Annie Hall, 1977 - *D, *W, LR

Interiors, 1978 – D, W

Manhattan, 1979 - W

Broadway Danny Rose, 1984 - D, W

Purple Rose of Cairo, 1985 - W

Hannah and Her Sisters, 1986 - D, *W

Radio Days, 1987 - W

Crimes and Misdemeanors, 1989 - D, W

Alice, 1990 - W

Husbands and Wives, 1992 - W

Bullets Over Broadway, 1994 - D, W

Mighty Aphrodite, 1995 - W

Deconstructing Harry, 1998 - W

Match Point, 2005 - W

Midnight in Paris, 2011 - D, *W

Blue Jasmine, 2013 - W

  

Christian Bale

The Fighter, 2010 - *SR

American Hustle, 2013 - LR

 Cate Blanchett

Elizabeth, 1998 – LS

The Aviator, 2004 - *SS

Notes on a Scandal, 2006 - SS

Elizabeth: The Golden Age, 2007 – LS

I’m Not There, 2007 – SS

Blue Jasmine, 2013 - LS

 Craig Borten

Dallas Buyers Club, 2013 - W

 Sandra Bullock

The Blind Side, 2009 - *LS

Gravity, 2013 - LS

 Steve Coogan

Philomena, 2013 - W

Bradley Cooper

Silver Linings Playbook, 2012 – LR

American Hustle, 2013 - SR

Alfonso Cuaron

Y Tu Mama Tambien, 2002 – W

Children of Men, 2006 – W

Gravity, 2013 - D

Julie Delpy

Before Sunset, 2004 – W

Before Midnight, 2013 - W

Judi Dench

Mrs. Brown, 1997 – LS

Shakespeare in Love, 1998 - *SS

Chocolat, 2000 – SS

Iris, 2001 – LS

Mrs. Henderson Presents, 2005 – LS

Notes on a Scandal, 2006 – LS

Philomena, 2013 – LS

Bruce Dern

Coming Home, 1978 – SR

Nebraska, 2013 – LR

Leonardo DiCaprio

What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?, 1993 – SR

The Aviator, 2004 – LR

Blood Diamond, 2006 – LR

The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013 – LR

Chiwetel Ejiofor

12 Years a Slave, 2013 – LR

Michael Fassbender

12 Years a Slave, 2013 – SR

Ethan Hawke

Training Day, 2001 – SR

Before Sunset, 2004 – W

Before Midnight, 2013 – W

Sally Hawkins

Blue Jasmine, 2013 – SS

Jonah Hill

Moneyball, 2011 – SR

The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013 – SR

Spike Jonze

Being John Malkovich, 1999 – D

Her, 2013 – W

Jennifer Lawrence

Winter’s Bone, 2010 – LS

Silver Linings Playbook, 2012 - *LS

American Hustle, 2013 – SS

 










Jared Leto

Dallas Buyers Club, 2013 – SR

Richard Linklater

Before Sunset, 2004 – W

Before Midnight, 2013 – W

Matthew McConaughey

Dallas Buyers Club, 2013 – LR

Steve McQueen

12 Years a Slave, 2013 – D

Bob Nelson

Nebraska, 2013 – W

Lupita Nyong’o

12 Years a Slave, 2013 – SS

Alexander Payne

Election, 1999 – W

Sideways, 2004 – D, *W

The Descendants, 2011 – D, *W

Nebraska, 2013 – D

Jeff Pope

Philomena, 2013 – W

Billy Ray

Captain Phillips, 2013 – W

John Ridley

12 Years a Slave, 2013 – W

Julia Roberts

Steel Magnolias, 1989 – SS

Pretty Woman, 1990 – LS

Erin Brockovich, 2000 - *LS

August: Osage County – SS

David O. Russell

The Fighter, 2010 – D

Silver Linings Playbook, 2012 – D, W

American Hustle, 2013 – D, W

Martin Scorsese

Raging Bull, 1980 – D

Last Temptation of Christ, 1988 – D

Goodfellas, 1990 – D, W

The Age of Innocence, 1993 – W

Gangs of New York, 2002 – D

The Aviator, 2004 – D

The Departed, 2006 - *D

Hugo, 2011 – D

The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013 – D

Eric Warren Singer

American Hustle, 2013 – W

June Squibb

Nebraska, 2013 – SS

Meryl Streep

The Deer Hunter, 1978 – SS

Kramer vs. Kramer, 1979 - *SS

The French Lieutenant’s Woman, 1981 – LS

Sophie’s Choice, 1982 - *LS

Silkwood, 1983 – LS

Out of Africa, 1985 – LS

Ironweed, 1987 – LS

A Cry in the Dark, 1988 – LS

Postcards From the Edge, 1990 – LS

The Bridges of Madison County, 1995 – LS

One True Thing, 1998 – LS

Music of the Heart, 1999 – LS

Adaptation, 2002 – SS

The Devil Wears Prada, 2006 – LS

Doubt, 2008 – LS

Julie and Julia, 2009 – LS

The Iron Lady, 2011 - *LS

August: Osage County, 2013 – LS

Melisa Wallack

Dallas Buyers Club, 2013 – W

Terence Winter

The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013 - W

And of course, your host,

[D: Directing; W: Writing; LR: Lead Actor; LS: Lead Actress; SR: Supporting Actor; SS: Supporting Actress; *: win]

And the nominees are...

Best Picture:

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

How I Did: 8/9 (I had Blue Jasmine and Saving Mr. Banks, but not Dallas)

Not much to see here; all the front-runners made it.

Best Director:

12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen

American Hustle: David O. Russell

Gravity: Alfonso Cuaron

Nebraska: Alexander Payne

The Wolf of Wall Street: Martin Scorsese

How I Did: 4/5 (Captain Phillips instead of Wolf)

I guess the Academy feels really bad about snubbing Marty for 30 years, because he knocked out two top contenders (Paul Greengrass and Spike Jonze) with such a divisive film.

Best Original Screenplay:

American Hustle: David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer

Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club: Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

Her: Spike Jonze

Nebraska: Bob Nelson

How I Did: 4/5 (Inside Llewyn Davis instead of Dallas)

I suppose it’s nice to see some newcomers in place of the Coen brothers, who already have two writing wins under their collective belt.

Best Adapted Screenplay:  

12 Years a Slave: John Ridley

Before Midnight: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater

Captain Phillips: Billy Ray

Philomena: Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

The Wolf of Wall Street: Terence Winter

How I Did: 4/5 (August: Osage County instead of Captain)

I still haven’t seen A:OC, the film or the play (which is especially shameful since I live on the home turf of this Steppenwolf Theatre original), so my disappointment for Tracy Letts is [so far] strictly a yay-Chicago thing.

Best Actress:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

How I did: 4/5 (Emma Thompson instead of Streep)

I am HUGELY disappointed for Emma Thompson, she was absolutely marvelous. I’m happy to see Amy Adams cracked the former-winners-only mold, but why couldn’t Meryl have been the one rotated out? I was hoping that winning her third statuette would have cured Oscar’s relentless obsession with her – at least for a few years – but no, it’s an 18^th nomination for her. She has as many career nominations as Dench, Blanchett, and Adams combined.

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

How I Did: 3/5 (I had Hanks and Redford instead of Bale and DiCaprio.)

Two long-shots unseated longtime Academy favorites. There are too many ill-informed articles floating around, touting DiCaprio as the favorite to win; in fact, his omission from the SAG nominations indicates a marked lack of support among his peers, and it’s a surprise he even made the list. (The Golden Globes are far more infatuated with him than the Oscars are; the Globes nominated him for Titanic, Catch Me If You Can, Revolutionary Road, J. Edgar, and Django Unchained, but Oscar did not for any of those films.)

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

How I Did: 4/5 (Oprah Winfrey instead of Hawkins)

Well, congrats to Sally Hawkins, who came so close to her first nod with Happy-Go-Lucky five years ago. I think Oprah’s career will be just fine.

Best Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Last year, Silver Linings Playbook became the first film in 31 years to be nominated in all four acting categories. American Hustle duplicated that feat this year, and both those films had the same director. Pretty darned impressive. Super-nerdy fact: Barkhad Abdi has unseated F. Murray Abraham as the most alphabetically superior acting nominee in Oscar history.

So there are the winners for round one. Here’s a scorecard to keep track of how many of the nominated films you’ve seen (with their block size proportionate to the number of top-tier nominations.)

Nominee Predictions

BEST ACTOR

* Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave. SAG, GG, CC, ISA.

* Bruce Dern, Nebraska. SAG, GG, CC, ISA, *LAFC, *NBR.

* Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. SAG, *GG, CC, ISA.

* Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips. SAG, GG, CC.

* Robert Redford, All is Lost. GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC.

Forrest Whitaker, The Butler. SAG.

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis. GG, ISA, *NSFC.

Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. GG.

Christian Bale, American Hustle. GG, CC.

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street. *GG.

Joaquin Phoenix, Her. GG.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station. ISA.

Only Ejiofor, Dern, and McConaughey are safe bets; there’s a crowd gunning for the two wild-card slots. I have Hanks because Capt. P is doing well with precursor awards, and Redford for the level-of-difficulty factor: A nearly wordless performance without a single co-star.

BEST ACTRESS

* Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. SAG, *GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC.

* Sandra Bullock, Gravity. SAG, GG, CC.

* Meryl Streep, August: Osage County. SAG, GG, CC.

* Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks. SAG, GG, CC, *NBR.

* Judi Dench, Philomena. SAG, GG, CC.

Amy Adams, American Hustle. *GG.

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color. *LAFC.

Brie Larson, Short Term 12. CC, ISA.

Julie Delpy, Before Midnight. GG, ISA.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said. GG.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day.

I hate this category already, with all former winners at the head of the pack. My five predictions have a total of 33 acting nominations and 7 wins between them. (Ugh.) Can Amy Adams shake things up?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

* Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. SAG, *GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC, *LAFC.

* Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave. SAG, GG, CC, ISA.

* Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips. SAG, GG, CC.

* Daniel Bruhl, Rush. SAG, GG, CC.

* Bradley Cooper, American Hustle. GG, CC.

James Gandolfini, Enough Said. SAG, CC, ISA.

Will Forte, Nebraska. ISA, *NBR.

James Franco, Spring Breakers. *LAFC, *NSFC.

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street.

Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief.

Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks.

This one’s even messier than Best Actor. I’m going with the SAG nominees, minus Gandolfini, because while he was beloved for his television work, but I don’t know that he had enough of a film career for the rare posthumous nomination. I’m really hoping for dark-horse Will Forte, and not just because of my fondness for MacGruber.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

* Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave. SAG, GG, CC, ISA, *LAFC.

* Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. SAG, *GG. GG. *NYFC, *NSFC.

* June Squibb, Nebraska. SAG, GG, CC, ISA.

* Julia Roberts, August: Osage County. SAG, GG, CC.

* Oprah Winfrey, The Butler. SAG.

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine. GG, ISA.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station. *NBR.

Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station. ISA.

Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color.

Scarlett Johansson, Her. CC.

It’s an either-or between Oprah and Sally Hawkins; I’m guessing the bigger star squeaks ahead. Scarlett Johansson makes an interesting long-shot; she could be the first actor nominated for a voice-over performance.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

* 12 Years a Slave: John Ridley. [ineligible for WGA award], GG, CC, ISA.

* Before Midnight: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater. WGA, CC, ISA, *LAFC, *NSFC.

* The Wolf of Wall Street: Terence Winter. WGA, CC, *NBR.

* August: Osage County: Tracy Letts. WGA, CC.

* Philomena: Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope. [ineligible for WGA award], GG, CC.

Captain Phillips: Billy Ray. WGA, CC.

Lone Survivor: Peter Berg. WGA.

There are few adaptations in the hunt this year, so I don’t see a whole lot of wiggle room; Captain Phillips might knock out August or Philomena.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

* American Hustle: David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer. WGA, GG, CC, *NYFC.

* Nebraska: Bob Nelson. WGA, GG, CC, ISA.

* Her: Spike Jonze. WGA, *GG, CC.

* Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen. WGA, CC, ISA.

* Inside Llewyn Davis: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. CC, *NBR.

Dallas Buyers Club: Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack. WGA.

Enough Said: Nicole Holofcener. ISA.

Wadjda: Haifaa Al-Mansour.

Fruitvale Station: Ryan Coogler.

Saving Mr. Banks: Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith.

Frances Ha: Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig.

My first three predictions are in a close race to win; my two also-rans are perennial Academy favorites, but this category likes to surprise with indie flicks and foreign films; my best guess for an international upset is Haifaa Al-Mansour, who is the first Saudi Arabian woman to direct a film.

BEST DIRECTOR

* 12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen. DGA, GG, CC, ISA, *NYFC.

* Gravity: Alfonso Cuaron. DGA, *GG, CC, *LAFC.

* American Hustle: David O. Russell. DGA, GG, CC.

* Captain Phillips: Paul Greengrass. DGA, GG, CC.

* Nebraska: Alexander Payne. GG, ISA.

Her: Spike Jonze. CC, *NBR.

The Wolf of Wall Street: Martin Scorsese. DGA, CC.

Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen.

Inside Llewyn Davis: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. *NSFC.

Fruitvale Station: Ryan Coogler.

All is Lost: J.C. Chandor. ISA.

It’s sooo close between Greengrass, Payne, and Jonze; any of the three of them could get bumped.

 

BEST PICTURE

* 12 Years a Slave: PGA, *GG, CC, ISA.

* Gravity: PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC.

* American Hustle: PGA, *GG, CC, *NYFC.

* Nebraska: PGA, GG, CC, ISA.

* Her: PGA, GG, CC, *LAFC, *NBR.

* Captain Phillips: PGA, GG, CC.

* The Wolf of Wall Street: PGA, GG, CC.

* Philomena: GG.

* Blue Jasmine: PGA.

*Saving Mr. Banks: PGA, CC.

Inside Llewyn Davis: GG, CC, ISA, *NSFC.

Fruitvale Station: ISA.

Before Midnight

Dallas Buyers Club: PGA, CC.

 

The Academy is still doing that stupid thing where they bestow between 5 and 10 Best Picture nods, depending on how many first-place votes each film gets in the run-off tabulation system. To maximize my chances of correct predictions, I’m putting my chips down on 10 different films; we'll probably see between seven and nine make the cut.

The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning! Will I be able to figure out how to watch the live announcement on my phone as I ride the train in to work?