Best Original Screenplay

Avatar	James Cameron	WGA	0,0 [writing only]
500 Days of Summer	Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber	CC, WGA	both 0,0
The Hangover	Jon Lucas, Scott Moore	WGA	both 0,0
The Hurt Locker	Mark Boal	CC, GG, WGA	0,0
In the Loop	Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Tony Roche	*NYFC	all 0,0
Inglourious Basterds	Quentin Tarantino	*CC, GG	1,1
It’s Complicated	Nancy Meyers	GG	1,0
A Serious Man	Joel and Ethan Coen	*NSFC, *NBR, CC, WGA	both 3,2
Up	Pete Docter, Bob Peterson	CC	Docter 2,0; Peterson 1,0

Here is a race that’s truly up for grabs. The Hurt Locker is maybe the front-runner, followed by A Serious Man, my favorite Coen brothers film of the decade. Tarantino’s audacious rewrite of world history Inglourious Basterds was also ineligible for a WGA nod on a technicality, but it too is a certainty for the Academy’s shortlist.

Since the inception of the Best Animated Feature category, it has been almost a law of Oscar gravity that the favorite animated film of the year (Wall-E, Ratatouille, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Shrek) is passed up by the WGA but nominated by the Academy’s Writers’ Branch on its way to the inevitable Animated Feature win. Therefore, Up is in.

It’s not hard to reason that Inglourious and Up’s omissions are the reason the Guild included Avatar and The Hangover. Cameron’s overripe dialogue for Titanic was rightfully denied a writing nomination, so I don’t think he’ll charm the Writers’ branch this time around either. And only in this lower-the-bar year could a hunk of garbage like The Hangover be a contender for anything, let alone its lazy script. (Besides, it should be in the adapted category for ripping off almost everything in the Flanders-goes-to-Vegas episode of The Simpsons, with deeply diminished returns.) I’m also crossing off Nancy Meyers, who is cut from the same cloth as Nora Ephron, and In the Loop, a little-seen political satire from across the pond. There are long-shots in The Messenger and The Young Victoria (by Gosford Park winner Julian Fellowes.) So I’m giving the last slot to 500 Days of Summer, the most acclaimed romantic comedy of the year, for its clever deconstruction of a failed relationship.