Best Adapted Screenplay

Sure-Things:

The Descendants, Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash

The Help, Tate Taylor

Hugo, John Logan

Moneyball, Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian

Remaining Prediction:

The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon

Alternates:

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Steven Zaillian

War Horse, Richard Curtis, Lee Hall

Long-Shots:

Drive, Hossein Amini

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Eric Roth

That fifth nomination is mighty slippery; my guess is that Academy members will reward Clooney for his work on either side of the camera, they way they did for both Good Night and Good Luck and Syriana in 2005.