It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar -- Oscar, Oscar -- Who will win?

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem just won three years ago for No Country for Old Men, he didn’t get a SAG nod (which indicates weak support from the Actors’ Branch of the Academy), and his film didn’t connect with voters.

Jeff Bridges just won last year for Crazy Heart. No one is pushing for him to join the Spencer-Tracy-Tom-Hanks Club.

James Franco is a long-shot possibility, if the Academy wants to reward not just his outstanding performance but his double-duty as the show’s host. Still, he’s a relative newcomer to the A-list; it’s not his turn yet.

Jesse Eisenberg is another long-shot possibility, since the whole evening boils down to The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech. But he is also a relative newcomer to the A-list, and at 27, he would make the youngest Best Actor winner ever. (This category skews much older than Best Actress.)

So let us count the ways Colin Firth is going to win: At 50 years old, the two-time Best Picture veteran (The English Patient, Shakespeare in Love) had the best year of his career, scoring his second consecutive lead actor nomination (after A Single Man), and raking in all the major awards for playing the heart and soul of the Best Picture favorite. Done and done.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Colin Firth’s will be the most richly deserved of The King’s Speech’s looming victories. (Though I haven’t seen Biutiful, and I never will.)

Best Actress:

Nicole Kidman has already won (for The Hours), and hers is her film’s only nomination.

Michelle Williams is also the lone representative of her film, and she didn’t get a SAG nod.

Jennifer Lawrence is too much of an unknown, and while she stars in a Best Picture nominee, it is definitely the least-seen of the ten.

Oh, poor Annette Bening! She has lost for The Grifters, American Beauty, and Being Julia; must she lose again? The Kids Are All Right was released in the summer, and all the buzz said she would finally win, but then Black Swan arrived in the winter and the fickle, elusive buzz suddenly shifted. The “overdue” factor could bring her an upset win, but alas, a second-place finish is more likely.

Natalie Portman scored the Critics’ Choice/Golden Globe/SAG trifecta. Voters will want to give at least one award to Black Swan (one of the “real” Best Picture nominees), and she will be the one to carry the flag. (Even those who have trouble with the disturbing and twisty elements of the film can get behind her emotional performance.) She may be only 29, but she’s a 15-year veteran of the business. This category favors pretty movie stars who are “having their moment” (Sandra Bullock, Kate Winslet, Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Halle Berry, and Julia Roberts, just to mine the current century), and this is hers.

Prediction: Natalie Portman; Personal Pick: Annette Bening. (Though I wish I had seen Blue Valentine in time for this writing.)

Best Supporting Actor:

John Hawkes is the least-known actor in the least-seen film in this race.

Jeremy Renner, with his second nomination in a row (after The Hurt Locker), may win some day, but not for The Town, which was shut out of all other contests.

Mark Ruffalo should also win some day, but his wry comedic turn can’t knock out the big drama in this race.

Geoffrey Rush could possibly win as part of a King’s Speech sweep, but as a Best Actor winner (for Shine), he hardly needs a Supporting Actor prize, too.

Yes, Christian Bale may have alienated some insiders for his erratic behavior, but as with Sean Penn, his performance is so universally applauded, the Academy will have a hard time voting against him.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Christian Bale.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jacki Weaver is the only actress here guaranteed to lose, as a complete unknown (in this hemisphere) with no SAG nod and no other mentions for her film.

Helena Bonham-Carter might – might – get picked up by the King’s Speech tornado, but though she was a lovely presence in the film, she can’t compete with the meatier, more dramatic work in this contest.

Amy Adams has scored three Oscar nods in six years; with her tough-broad turn in The Fighter contrasting nicely against her child-like characters in Doubt and Junebug, this might be her year. Still, Fighter fans seem to prefer her co-star.

Hailee Steinfeld probably does the MOST acting in this category, because she’s in nearly every scene of her film; she was only put in the supporting race because she’s all of 14 years old. This could be an advantage, or it could be seen as a cheat; it worked for 10-year-old Tatum O’Neal, the “supporting” star of Paper Moon, but not for Abigail Breslin of Little Miss Sunshine. I don’t think the Academy will give the award to a child in her very first film role; it’s not unprecedented but certainly very rare. (Only three minors have won acting Oscars, and all for Supporting Actress: 16-year-old Patty Duke in The Miracle Worker, 11-year-old Anna Paquin in The Piano, and the aforementioned Ms. O’Neal.)

And then there’s Melissa Leo. She’s a solid character actress whose profile has increased in recent years with 21 Grams, Frozen River, and now The Fighter. With the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG awards in her corner, she should be unbeatable. She generated some controversy, however, with campaign ads she bought for herself that some found to be in poor taste. It’s enough to keep Adams and Steinfeld on the edge of their seats, but I think she still has the inside track.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Melissa Leo.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

True Grit is a No; the Coen brothers have four Oscars apiece, and this is far from their most compelling film.

127 Hours gets no love either; Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle won for Slumdog Millionaire two years ago, and they won’t repeat with a film that has so little dialogue.

Winter’s Bone is just too tiny.

Toy Story 3 kept up the tradition of the inevitable Animated Feature winner gunning for a screenplay award, though I don’t think a cartoon has ever won.

And so The Social Network kicks everyone’s ass, with the most impressive dialogue AND story structure. I hope Aaron Sorkin gives a fun speech.

Prediction: The Social Network; Personal Pick: Sorkin will make a fine choice, but I’m partial to Winter’s Bone.

Best Original Screenplay:

Funny how the Academy always nominates Mike Leigh but he never comes close to winning. (He won’t with Another Year, a one-nomination film against four Best Picture nominees.)

Inception was the surprise winner of the Writers’ Guild award; strange considering how none of its competitors relied on explaining the convoluted and ridiculous rules of its alternate reality to an uninitiated character. Nolan’s omission from the Director race proves the Academy isn’t that crazy about the film.

The Fighter makes a respectable nominee in a top Best Picture contender, but the film hasn’t commanded a substantial lead in the race; its one or two acting wins will probably be enough. (Four screenwriters is kind of a crowd, and none of them are well-known.)

The Kids Are All Right is a possibility, if voters don’t want the film to go home empty handed. It’s the sort of low-key Best Picture nominee that has no chance at the top prize but could be embraced for its writing.

Ultimately, this is another victory for the Brits. David Seidler won’t simply win as part of a King’s Speech stampede; the 73-year-old writer was a stutterer himself, and though he longed to tell this inspiring story for most of his life, he respected the Queen Mother’s wishes that he not publish the story in her lifetime (and she did not pass away until 2002, at age 101.) He will surely be rewarded for his patience.

Prediction: The King’s Speech. Personal Pick: The Kids Are All Right

Best Director:

Again, the Coen brothers (sans a DGA nod) will not prevail.

The hipsters, Darren Aronofsky and David O. Russell, may win some day, but this year they are the also-rans.

Here is part one of the big Social Network vs. King’s Speech showdown. The Social Network cleaned up at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe awards, and looked unstoppable. But then The King’s Speech stole the Producers’ Guild Award, followed by the Directors’ Guild Award, followed by the SAG Award for ensemble cast. No, Ensemble Cast is not an “equivalent” to Best Picture, but for the actors to give their ensemble award to a film that is clearly a two-man show indicates they’re so head-over-heels for the film that they’ve lost all good sense.

The DGA award is a biggie, and a victory for Tom Hooper made him a force to be reckoned with, but he is an unknown compared to the other five guys in the race. Look at Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash, The Pianist vs. Chicago, Traffic vs. Gladiator, and Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare in Love. In all these cases, the former film took Best Director and the latter took Best Picture. I think there’s enough of a divide this year that the top awards will split. Score this round for the computer nerds…

Prediction: David Fincher, The Social Network; Personal Pick: I’m good with Fincher winning, though I prefer The Fighter.

Best Picture:

In this, part two, the royals take the big prize.

Prediction: The King's Speech; Personal Pick: I'd rather see The Social Network win out of the two heavyweights, but my heart belongs to those damn toys.













The King's Speech may be a nice film with tender performances, but a work of cinema it is not. At least if it wins, it will break the streak of a big ol' stinker of a Best Picture winner every five years (Crash, Gladiator, Braveheart).