Best Original Screenplay

Steven Soderbergh got all the press for making Erin Brockovich and Traffic the same year, which took two of the four acting trophies for 2000. But dig this: Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren are both sweeping the Actor and Actress awards in roles penned by the same screenwriter. Peter Morgan’s supposition on what went on in the mind of The Queen following Princess Diana’s death is the leader of the pack; he is a lock here, and might get a nod in the adaptation category for Last King of Scotland, too. Morgan’s only loss among major award groups was to Michael Arndt’s decidedly un-regal Little Miss Sunshine, the strongest consensus of the year between audiences and critics. The final sure-thing is Babel, penned by Guillermo Arriaga, author of previous Oscar nominees 21 Grams and Amores Perros. Guessing the last two nods is pretty much splitting hairs. I think United 93 could muscle its way ahead, if voters find it too un-cinematic for Best Picture and Director, but still want to honor Paul Greengrass’s noble effort. (United’s script used many elements of adaptation, because it was pieced together from the cockpit tapes and reported cell phone conversations between the passengers and their families. However, as a work of conjecture drawn from unpublished source material, it qualifies as an original screenplay.) Iris Yamashita’s Letters From Iwo Jima has popped up in this category, which doesn’t make sense because it was based on the book Picture Letters From Commander in Chief by Tadamichi Kuribayashi. Half Nelson was a beloved personal-vision picture of 2006, but the script hasn’t picked up many citations. The Mexican/Spanish fantasy Pan’s Labyrinth is widely acclaimed, but nominations are more likely for its visual grandeur than for its words. The race probably narrows down to Stranger Than Fiction versus Volver. Stranger earned mixed reviews, with some complaining it was wannabe-Charlie Kaufman. The Academy has been enamored with Pedro Almodovar, giving him Best Foreign Language Film for Todo Sobre Mi Madre and Original Screeplay for Hable Con Ella, which makes me optimistic that the lovely Volver will be Pedro’s return to the Oscar festivities.