Best Supporting Actress

With the other three acting races packed with veteran actors long-due for recognition, this category is mostly a study in newcomers. The early favorite is Jennifer Hudson, making her acting debut in Dreamgirls. When I saw this movie in the theatre, the audience burst into raucous applause for her lung-busting musical number and for her name in the end credits, which sums up the way just about everyone on the planet feels about her performance. Hudson’s primary competition comes from another 25-year-old actress, Rinko Kikuchi, in her American film debut. Kikuchi gives her entire performance in sign language, a feat also accomplished by Best Actress winners Jane Wyman in Johnny Belinda, Marlee Matlin in Children of a Lesser God, and Holly Hunter in The Piano. Another actress from Babel sure to be recognized is Adriana Barraza, appearing on almost every ballot Kikuchi has. A third actress from Babel is the last sure thing, only Cate Blanchett won’t be nominated for her cameo in Babel, but instead for squaring off against Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal. (With Mirren and Dench, Blanchett is the third former Queen Elizabeth I in contention this year.) The final spot is up for grabs. I’m not optimistic about Emily Blunt, the surprise Globe nominee, or Emma Thompson, given the underwhelming reception of her film. Lily Tomlin might sneak in as a tribute to her director, the late Robert Altman. Catherine O’Hara’s performance as an actress desperate for her first Oscar nomination might compel voters to choose her, or they might be turned off by the idea; since For Your Consideration is widely regarded as the least of Christopher Guest’s filmography, and O’Hara has been better in all three of her previous collaborations with Guest, the latter outcome is more likely. That means the popularity surge for Little Miss Sunshine will bump Abigail Breslin into the final five. Breslin will be 10 years and 284 days old on the day the nominations are announced, which means if she is chosen, she won’t break the record for youngest actress ever nominated, but she’ll be in 4th place behind fellow 10-year-olds Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon, Mary Badham in To Kill a Mockingbird, and Quinn Cummings in The Goodbye Girl.